Ep. 117: Is 2025 the Best Year to Retire? Market Outlook, AI, and Financial Planning
The X's and O's
In this episode of the Retirement Plan Playbook, Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal, and Joshua Winterswyk explore whether 2025 is shaping up to be one of the best years to retire. With strong market performance, rising Social Security benefits, and the continued evolution of AI, this year presents unique opportunities—and challenges—for those considering retirement.
Here’s what we cover:
Market momentum & economic stability – Is now the right time to retire?
The impact of inflation & government spending cuts – How does it affect retirement income?
Housing & mortgage trends – Should you sell or stay put?
AI & workplace shifts – Will AI change the job market and influence retirement decisions?
Windfall Elimination Provision changes – How will it impact government pension holders?
Plus, we discuss:
Golf tournament experiences & Super Bowl reactions
AI-powered recipe searches & the future of tax filing automation
Tech recommendations, including air fryers & must-have gadgets for parents
Contact Us
Thinking about retiring or optimizing your financial plan? Visit https://www.evermont.com/home#schedule for a complimentary consultation.
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Transcript
Disclaimer: This transcript was automatically generated. Please excuse any typos or transcription errors.
Welcome to the Retirement Plan Playbook hosted by Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal, and Joshua Winterswyk of Evermont Wealth. This podcast dives deep into investment strategies, retirement planning, and current events, equipping you with the insights needed to craft a robust retirement playbook adaptable to any political or economic climate.
Join Brent, Matthew, and Joshua as they guide you through the complexities of retirement planning. Offering expert advice. to tackle challenges and the later stages of your journey. It's time to build your optimal retirement playbook. Now let's dive into today's episode.
Matthew: Alright, so I got you guys some stuff.
Brent: Did you?
Matthew: Yeah. Went to the WM open and brought you guys back some swag. So you
Brent: came back a few days ago and you've been holding that this whole time? Yeah, I wanted to show you guys
Matthew: the podcast. So check this out. I got you guys golf towels. Here's the stadium. Thanks man.
Matthew: Joshua. For me? Yep, and here Brent, here's for you. I got you guys the same thing. Thanks man. You know, I wish I could have been a little bit more, there you go, take that, a little bit more creative, but.
Josh: This is nice, thank you. Thank you for thinking of us.
Matthew: You're welcome. Then I got you guys one other little thing.
Matthew: It has a price tag on it, but I mean, we're all adults, so who cares. This is for your ball, you can mark it, and it's also a bottle opener. That's super cool man. Yeah, so. You know,
Brent: thanks for thinking of us when you were there.
Matthew: No, you're welcome. I need you to play a little bit more golf, so hopefully this motivates you, Brent.
Matthew: Yeah, like the
Brent: towel and the ball marker? Yeah, you never know. I mean, there's nothing that gets me to play more golf than a marker and a golf towel.
Josh: Well, I'm gonna use this. I figured you would. I like the ball marker.
Matthew: Yeah. That's cool. Yeah. I'm glad you like it.
Josh: So golf towel ball marker from the waste management.
Matthew: Yeah. No, it's no it's WM open.
Josh: Oh, it's not called waste management No,
Matthew: they dropped a little waste management. Why because everybody was calling it the wasted management So this is
Josh: the golf tournament in Scottsdale.
Josh: Yeah, these are first time
Matthew: first time there I think I'll be going back next year too, because it's a lot of fun
Josh: So this is like the funnest event on the PGA Tour. Yeah, so they build the stadium around the 16th hole It's like a big party.
Matthew: Yeah,
Josh: it's pretty wild. It's cool. I like watching it on TV. Me too I've been in the I've been to the golf course.
Josh: I got to play the golf course, but I've never been to the tournament
Brent: Oh, well, you played the you played that course.
Josh: Yeah,
Brent: how is it?
Josh: It's nice. It's very nice It's though it looks a lot different when all of the stadium when it's not dressed up for the tournament Because they build so many structures there like the stadium and all of the surrounding That like when you go and it's not up it looks kind of like completely different than it looks on TV
Matthew: They should just keep the stadium up here around.
Josh: I saw that today too. It was being tweeted a lot. Really? Yeah, because I guess it takes them like I don't know months to build it So they tear it down and then rebuild it, but it takes months to build it back up Oh, like why don't they just keep it up and then rent it out and because it looks cooler with the stadium
Brent: It looked cool Was it a nice golf course when you played it?
Josh: Yeah, it was really nice. I had a good time. It was it was nice. Desert kind of like, Desert vibe, really well maintained. Well, it's like a PGA course, so obviously it's going to be nice. Was We played early in the morning. Cause it looked
Brent: warm this week. And Matt, you came back sunburned, your face was all red.
Brent: And it was
Matthew: only 75 degrees, but it was the hottest 75 degrees I've ever experienced. It was hot. Was that your first time going to a golf tournament? Yeah. That's super
Brent: cool. It was cool. I had a good time. Have you been to a live tournament?
Josh: I've never been.
Brent: Me either.
Josh: I want to go.
Brent: Yeah, it seems like a cool experience.
Josh: Too bad the Genesis Open was moved to Torrey Pines cause of the fires. So it's usually at Riviera and Pacific Palisades.
Brent: I think it would be a fun event for us to go to with our wives. All of us to go.
Josh: Yeah. Well, I'm interested. Sounds like you had a good time.
Brent: It was a good time. Did you guys watch Superbowl?
Brent: I think it's a American tradition. You have to watch the Superbowl, right? Yeah. What'd you think? You make any money? I am finally glad the Chiefs lost. I, I don't think I could stand watching them again win another Super Bowl. It's just the Chiefs are not my forte. I just don't enjoy watching the Chiefs play.
Brent: So watching them get handled yesterday was, I enjoyed that thoroughly. No matter how kind of one sided and lopsided that game was, just the fact that they were getting spanked. game. I was enjoying that.
Josh: I, I agree. It's kind of like you wanted to see the, the chiefs finally beaten like, and, but I also don't like the Eagles very much.
Josh: So it wasn't my favorite Superbowl. Do you not like
Brent: the Eagles
Josh: as an
Brent: organization
Josh: or the fans? I think it's everything. I don't know. They're just not my favorite team. Hard to explain, but neither of the chiefs. So I was hoping for a good game. Kind of rooting for the Eagles because I didn't want to see the Chiefs win.
Josh: So I guess it turned out that way.
Brent: I guess I'm not a Phillies, Philadelphia fan of just the way that their fans are. So I'm not a fan of them. They seem rowdy, right? Yes. And they're very harsh. But I do like the players that are on the Eagles and it was good to see Jalen Hurts win and Saquon and Devontae Smith and like a lot of like guys that have worked obviously really hard.
Brent: It's good to see people accomplish their goals.
Josh: Yeah, it's cool. It's cool to see Saquon win too after he was in such a Bad spot, New York. Right. Did you watch the Super Bowl, Matt?
Matthew: Yeah! No, it was nice to see the Chiefs, Liz. I, I think, you know, most people I would talk to about the Super Bowl were hoping the Chiefs with Liz.
Matthew: Mm hmm. You know, you see it, we don't even see it three years in a row.
Josh: You can look at it another way. Like you get you're witnessing greatness Dynasty,
Matthew: yeah, we just all witnessed the pats.
Brent: We're already over the dynasty over it. Yeah, we saw that so many times over and over again I don't want to see that again,
Matthew: but I agree.
Matthew: The Eagles are pretty boring. Not really my kind of team
Brent: either
Josh: Overall, you know good football season like compared to like it. Let's say the Lions made the Super Bowl That'd been fun.
Matthew: Yeah, I mean, they'll never make the Super Bowl officer QB. But yeah, I mean that'd be cool
Brent: I mean if this teaches you anything I mean as far as the dynasty goes You have to have the best coach in the league and the best cutter quarterback in the league and you can win and be part of a dynasty The Brady Belichick era was that way, the Mahomes Andy Reid era is that way, and everybody else is playing for second or an occasional championship if you don't have that.
Josh: That's the winning combo. Yep. But that's a really hard combo to place. Correct. Best quarterback, best coach. Yep. But the Chiefs didn't even look good. They did not. Looked awful.
Brent: They, they seem to be struggling and not know what to do. My thought was at halftime is that, although the score was already a little bit out of control, that there was still a chance that the Chiefs would change their game plan and they would come out a new team.
Brent: And you could see, like, in the fourth quarter, they scored a lot of points in the fourth quarter. You could say, you know, that game was already out of hand, but they, they still were able to put points in the fourth quarter. You wonder, like, did they figure something out finally in the fourth quarter? Or was the Eagles just kind of over it at that point and they knew that thing was locked up?
Josh: Yeah, I don't know, but it didn't look very close. So, congrats to the Eagles.
Brent: Yeah.
Matthew: What do you guys think of all the tariffs? Every Friday there's a tariff announcement that goes away by Monday. It's
Josh: hard keeping track. I know. It's hard keeping track of all of the tariffs. You know what one thing I saw on the tariffs? This is for the beer drinkers out there. But if like the tariffs on Mexico keep going another pause, now four out of the five beers that are important in the U S come from Mexico.
Josh: So if you're a beer drinker, that can mean inflation for you.
Brent: I guess catch me up because I thought they said that we'd only be implementing tariffs if they didn't comply. And I thought they complied. And there was a pause put. So are the tariffs potentially still going to happen?
Josh: Potentially.
Brent: But they're not implemented yet.
Josh: They were, and then they're paused.
Brent: Got it. 30 days, I think. 30 day pause. And they have to comply with all of these factors, and then what?
Josh: Reassess?
Brent: Continue to comply? And so have we put tariffs on other countries right now that are actually active? I don't think so. So everybody's complying with the terms.
Josh: And the new one is steel and aluminum.
Brent: Oh, is there a new one?
Josh: I think that was announced today. Oh, nice. Potentially.
Matthew: From where? Something
Josh: to monitor as well. Same countries. Yeah. Canada, Mexico.
Matthew: Well, they seem to be announced on Friday and then forgiven by Monday.
Josh: Yeah, I think that could probably give some people some peace of mind, right?
Josh: Because there was a lot of worry about the broad tariffs in the beginning, but then you saw very quickly that a somewhat of a deal was reached and now they're paused. So I think a lot of people are worried about the continuous tariffs going forward and inflation, but if it's just the negotiation tactic, is there that much worry?
Matthew: Yeah, it's just a negotiation tactic. So nothing to see here.
Josh: I think it could be, obviously we still need to monitor. What do you think?
Brent: Well, I think
Josh: big worry not worry
Brent: any type anytime that there's these types of negotiations going on I mean, I don't know that there's a big worry But it is definitely it seems like a stronghold tactic that he's doing to countries just to make them to comply with the things that He wants We'll see if he actually puts tariffs on things, but it's actually it's making progress Right because he's getting the things done that he wants to get done right now.
Josh: Yeah, so trade war yes or no Yeah, no,
Matthew: no Government spending you guys think you're cunt spending you guys happy. I mean it has to be done I don't know why it's
Brent: taking
Matthew: this
Brent: long. That's the biggest question I have
Matthew: Well, I mean it just takes a debt crisis, right? We're in a huge debt crisis We've been in
Brent: a debt crisis, but what's taking them so long to implement like some common knowledge about finances Oh, we finally have a leader that cares.
Brent: Well either that or Somebody cares to stop all the people getting paid on the back end, which are all the politicians and all the greedy politicians that are in there, you know, getting handouts.
Matthew: I mean, some of the things that are cutting, it's just wild. What like our taxpayer money is going to right now, just unbelievable, but
Josh: that's how, that's how they get elected, right?
Josh: They promise to implement new ideas, new everything. And they have to keep on that promise, which means more spending.
Matthew: Well, I mean, I think it's a good thing. Hopefully we could get the spending under control and that would help the economy interest rates come lower and, you know, help the help, help us with our tax dollars and it could mean our taxes go lower, right? Cause we, if we don't need as much money as the government thinks to fund the country, then they could lower tax rates even further.
Brent: So my question is, do people either get arrested or kicked out? Of politics or out of their position or other seat after more information begins to come out about where this money has been going to.
Josh: I don't know.
Brent: I don't know. Do you, what's
Josh: your thought?
Brent: I mean, I would hope that people would be held accountable in whatever capacity possible.
Josh: It's a slippery slope.
Matthew: Yeah I'm happy to see it though I mean, like I said, it's a positive development for all americans if we stop spending as much and you know Start focusing more on our problems here.
Josh: I think where i'm positive is that we know raising taxes wasn't the solution Right like you can project that actuaries can come up with if we raise taxes by X.
Josh: Is it gonna make a dent into the Deficit. No, it's not. So what's the alternative promote more growth and cut spending
Brent: right
Josh: and Trump is implementing that So that's where I am positive because we know The alternative isn't going to work. So we're actually doing something about this worry and he's implementing.
Josh: So
Brent: it's just amazing to me that it's taking this long or somebody to come in to stop this or, or to change it because you would think there would be accountability on people's spending and you would have oversight on what people are doing in office. But obviously, you know, at some point things got away and it's just, it seems like a free for all.
Brent: I
Josh: mean, it's hard when everybody's doing it, right? So like, how are you going to hold anyone accountable when they're all campaigning and politicking the same way?
Matthew: Right.
Josh: You know, it's no one's doing wrong because we're all doing the same thing.
Matthew: Right. Yeah, and there's no system of accountability on where the money went, so.
Matthew: And
Josh: it's from the top down. Right. Again, no one's not participating in the spending.
Brent: So what else is in the news right now with politics?
Matthew: Oh, you know, there's some tax cuts coming along. Trump kind of had a tax plan that was leaked. It was pretty much what he said on the campaign trail. Pretty much.
Matthew: He's done what he said on the campaign trail, which, you know, isn't very shocking. That's good. Trump 2. 0. Right. I think the, the biggest thing for our listeners is no tax on social security, which I don't know when I came as industry brand and you're teaching me the social security taxation laws. Like, dude, it's so confusing and so stupid.
Matthew: Yeah. Like, why are they taxing social security? Like, it doesn't make sense.
Brent: Yeah, I don't know. It would almost make more sense for them just to not raise the benefit and just stop the taxes on it.
Matthew: Yeah,
Brent: Or to reduce the benefit slightly and not tax it, you know, like there's, I think there's other options that they potentially could do, but why are they, they paying it as income and then taking it back?
Brent: And I mean, some of that does not make sense, but then some people don't pay any taxes on their social security for them that it is highly beneficial, but you know, it kind of has to follow the tax rules. Yeah,
Josh: and that's a lot of people. We're only collecting social security in retirement, meaning they're not paying any tax on their social security benefits.
Josh: Right.
Matthew: Then there's the no tax on tips, which, unless they put some rules around that, I think that could be a big loophole a lot of people start to exploit. Or, and maybe they want that loophole there for people to exploit. Right. Maybe that's kind of the way to, to make Income, you know, tax free in this country.
Matthew: There's no tax on tips.
Josh: But working in this service industry. That would be a lot easier for a lot of those workers to not, cause you try to get creative when you get tips and you're working in that industry. So to not have that worry about your tips being taxed, you don't have to be creative anymore and not have to have the worry about being taxed on tips.
Josh: I think provides a lot of people in the tip industries. A lot of kind of peace of mind and something to be kind of happy about, obviously. Right?
Brent: Right. Speaking of tips, though, like, have you seen how all this tipping now works? Like when you go to sports games or Big events when we went to the Rose Bowl game and the last several sporting events.
Brent: I've gone to Where you just basically they're already in putting your tip in there essentially or It's already giving you an option for exactly what you're gonna have to tip or it Doesn't give you an opt out button
Josh: This has been going on for a long time. Now, this is not you, you go up and it's 18, 20 and 22 percent tip.
Josh: Yeah, it's
Matthew: ridiculous, man. This tipping is out of control, out of control.
Josh: I have no problem with tipping for the right level of service. Like I said, I even work in the service industry. I worked in restaurants all through high school and college. And I think that when you're providing a good service and that type of level of service, you should be tipped.
Josh: Right. But to go up there and to go. Get a coke and a hot dog and a beer at a sports game and you're going to hand it to me and it's less than a five second transaction. Why do I need to tip you?
Brent: Yeah, do you think that there should be tips or any tip on concession?
Josh: I mean that should be up to you But it shouldn't be expected like you're saying what there's a button there for you to feel obligated to tip them
Brent: Right because they're the only way that you cannot tip them is you have to like opt out opt out.
Brent: Yep. Yeah Yeah, they're putting you in a bad position. It's not like before where you'd have to enter a tip.
Josh: Correct.
Brent: Now, now it just makes you tip.
Josh: Or like on a receipt at the restaurant, right? But now restaurants even have those kiosks where you put your card in right at the table and then it
Brent: prompts you to tip.
Brent: When I was at the Rose Bowl, I got my son and my nephews a churro. And the guy that did it entered the tip in there. Really? Yeah. He put the tip in there and did the whole transaction. It emailed me a receipt and it had the tip on there. I don't think that they're allowed to do that though. But I mean, clearly they're giving people the opportunity to do that.
Brent: Any other changes going on? The other thing that people keep asking about is the windfall provision changes.
Matthew: Oh, that's right. I forgot about that.
Brent: Are they, is that unclear or is that going through? Well, I think it went through on what, January 5th, I believe. And then. I think the language of what's happening with the windfall is still being determined and if people are going to get benefits, I think it's going to be retroactive too.
Brent: So this year? At some point this year. I
Josh: think I also read that it could take up to a year for you to see a change.
Matthew: I mean, it makes sense. It's another one of those rules where, I don't know, it doesn't make that much sense. You know, worked hard and got Social Security, and then you qualified for a government pension.
Matthew: Why would they take both away? Why would they take the Social Security away from you? Brent,
Josh: do you want to explain what the Windfall Elimination Provision is?
Brent: Windfall Elimination Provision has been a provision that's been in place for a long time. And what it basically said is it tried to avoid people from double dipping.
Brent: So if someone collected a federal pension and They, let's say, also, previous to them working their government job they did their 40 quarters from Social Security. They weren't basically allowed to collect both the pension and the Social Security, or there was an offset. So, let's say someone was entitled to get 1, 000 from Social Security, but they had a 4, 000 pension from the government.
Brent: Maybe they'd get 100 or 200 from Social Security, but a majority of their Social Security was either offset to a very minimal amount or to zero. And this is basically saying that they're going to try to cancel that offset so that people can actually collect both and they're not going to consider it double dipping anymore, but it also affected people that had like, you know, one spouse work for the government and then the other spouse collected social security and then one.
Brent: The spouse who collected Social Security passed away and the spouse that was surviving wasn't entitled to any of the benefits because of the the government pension. So there's been a lot of that discussion also about what about the spouses. That are still alive. And so that's been a challenge. So I think as we find out more, we'll be able to navigate through this, but that could be a good change for retirees.
Josh: Oh, it's a great change. So we, we have a lot of clients that fall under elimination provision.
Brent: A lot, a lot. And these have been topics of discussion for a long time, where it's been unfair to them and they feel like it's unfair.
Matthew: What I'm hearing with all these rules and everything coming up within the last couple of months here is.
Matthew: It's just way too complex and almost a better approach is what happens if we start over, like, would we still do this the same way? And it seems like that's what's happened. So it's happened with government spending. It's what's happening on the tax side right now. So it's happened with all these weird retirement rules.
Matthew: Like why is everything so complex? It doesn't need to be.
Brent: No. And with AI, I would assume that things begin to get easier. Yeah. Right? Because they're going to be able to probably simplify how a tax return is completed, because now you could probably do a tax return through AI, or we're getting really close to being able to do it.
Matthew: Yeah, the new chat GPT model said the first job it will replace is going to be doing tax returns Because it's just so easy for an AI to read the document and file the return.
Josh: I'm here for it.
Brent: Me too But I would think on the on the IRS internal side. They'll be able to Probably find mistakes easier without having to manually go through people's returns.
Brent: I think there's already a level of that being done where things would get flagged, but I would assume like an AI model would be in the IRS at some point where they would just be able to kick back errors all day long.
Matthew: I could imagine a world where we don't even need any IRS agents. Yeah, I can too. And it's just your, your information gets uploaded to the IRS.
Matthew: They calculate out how much you owe in taxes and that's the end of it. That's the end of it. If you, if you owe money, you get a refund, you have to pay. If not, you get a refund.
Brent: Yeah. Either way, there's no discussion back and forth.
Matthew: Yeah, there's no, yeah, it's, it's clear. It's cut and dry. The
Josh: only employees are going to be the developers,
Matthew: right?
Matthew: Yeah. Who are doing the code.
Josh: Whoever the platform is, it's going to run the. You know, returns and calculations. Yeah,
Brent: yeah,
Matthew: exactly.
Brent: So the topic we want to talk about today is whether it's good to retire in 2025, is this a year that stands out to you? If somebody is like on the bubble and they're thinking, should I retire this year, next year, two years, is this a year to retire from?
Matthew: Yeah. I mean, I thought 23 was a good year. 24 is a good year. I think 25 is a tremendous year to retire. Yeah, absolutely. Retire now. But what makes
Brent: this year such a, a good year to retire?
Matthew: Well, I think for one, you have political stability whether you like the current political landscape or not, you know, you get four years of it.
Matthew: So hopefully things aren't going to change that much. Right? So there's a
Josh: blueprint for the next four
Matthew: years. Exactly. And that blueprint is cut spending. And have higher economic growth. What like Josh was saying, and that sounds like a pretty good environment to retire into me.
Josh: And we're following two good years in the market up over 50%.
Josh: If you retired today too, you have, you know, fixed income yields, still very attractive for the income you need. So with all that being said, you still have a housing market that's sustained. And considering all of those variables, it's a very good time to retire.
Brent: Yeah, I, I don't know. I think people's returns have been so good over the last decade, assuming they were saving a healthy amount into their 401k plan.
Brent: I think more people right now have been working for a long time and putting into a 401k plan. I probably reached better targets to be able to have a larger amount of money to retire, but they are also increasing the amount of money you can defer into your retirement accounts. And that seems to be increasing every year.
Brent: So the longer people are able to put in more money, even though they're buying in the market at higher prices right now, I mean, it's still a very good year to save.
Josh: Yeah, it's a good year to save, but retirement doesn't have to mean you're completely stopped stopping working either. But I, I hear what you're saying.
Josh: Cause if you are a high earner, I love what you do. You can still really kind of compound some good growth years potentially with higher savings limits and your deferred compensation plans equating to an even better retirement is what I hear you say.
Brent: Yes.
Matthew: So I don't think any of us got TikTok, right? I don't have TikTok.
Matthew: Do you have TikTok, Josh? No. All right. I think we were all from the Instagram generation. I think we kind of skipped over TikTok. Right.
Brent: Well, Tik Tok came after Instagram. We just chose not to join that platform. Because we're getting older, right? Well, we are old. Well, we're old. You're getting older. We're like the same age.
Brent: You gotta speak for yourselves.
Josh: We're,
Brent: You're four years younger than I am. Dude, that's not a big, that's, at our age, four years is nothing. Well, you could have fit in the Tik Tok world better than I could have.
Matthew: Dude, trust me. I was not fitting in that world. But anyway, my point is, as you get older, you don't like new technology as much.
Matthew: And we're at this new point in time where AI is coming and you either need to learn how to use AI properly, or you're going to lose out to AI. And that's why I think right now, if you're in your, like your late fifties or sixties, this is probably one of the best times to retire. If you don't want to learn the new technology,
Brent: because the work landscape is about to change.
Matthew: It's already changing and it's going to change a lot, really fast in the next two years,
Josh: but it's not that hard to learn AI. I'll also play the other side of this though, although the technology is, is growing very quickly. It's a lot harder though. To integrate that technology, especially into big corporations and governments to use.
Josh: So it might be, although the technologies here, we have access to it. You, you need to be able to use it or use it to your opportunity, but it might not be as close in my opinion for people being replaced or those systems being implemented very, very quickly. See, I think it's already started. Where do you see an example of that?
Josh: Software. Yeah, no, no, no. But like in the working environment, software, give me an example.
Matthew: Software job postings are at all time lows right now.
Josh: Okay.
Matthew: The big Silicon Valley companies, Facebook, Amazon, they're not hiring.
Josh: Yeah. But, and this is my argument though, how, how many people do you know that work for those companies doing those, those jobs?
Matthew: Not a lot. Cause it's not really the sandbox I'm in, but it's there first. And I think it's going to come to the other companies a lot faster than most people are expecting right now.
Josh: I, I, I do agree with you, but I do have some hesitation about how, how quickly we we've seen.
Josh: We, I mean, we even see some of the tech companies that we work with are somewhat slow to adapt
Brent: very, but you can also say that people's skill sets are going to need to be able to keep up with what modern AI technology. And how it is advancing the competition next to you. So somebody using AI versus somebody not using AI is going to be very, very different.
Brent: Because now I can look at somebody writing me an email or sending me a type of response. I'm like, Hey, you could have done a lot better with that. If you would have taken two seconds and used AI.
Josh: You know that though, but the people sending it, who aren't using it might not know that. And the people they're working with might not
Brent: know that.
Brent: But their boss is probably going to end up knowing that.
Josh: Yeah, potentially, but it's the boss's job to help them implement
Matthew: the CEOs of all the companies. No, that's why they're spending trillions of dollars a year to upgrade to AI.
Josh: They do. But I just think of also, just like in the public sector, you think about just local city local, even state.
Josh: How long it would take for them to actually implement some sort of policy and software from AI?
Brent: Yeah, because compliance is going to be difficult. Yes,
Josh: absolutely
Matthew: Well, I don't know the way musk is going through government I just
Josh: wanted to play the other side of it I do agree with you that you need to adapt or die right like with ai it's eventually coming for everybody.
Josh: But I do see it You know, the other side of it, or it could take a little longer to implement than people think.
Brent: But you've also stayed on the side that, out of everybody that you know, or the people that you've asked. There is a lot of people still not using AI,
Josh: correct? And it's a my one of my favorite like cocktail questions right now of like anywhere I go I'm asking people like if they're one using AI and two, how are they using it?
Josh: But the majority of people I'm talking to even the younger generation say I've downloaded chat GPT, but I'm not using it I understand what chat is, but I'm not using it and You know, I'm kind of concerned about all of them and I'm, I want to help them realize that how useful of a tool it is. But I am shocked that still a lot of people that I've talked to in my circles aren't really
Brent: using it to its capability.
Brent: I mean, have you, how much have you used like perplexity or Bard or some of those other ones that you've talked about? I've used a lot of
Matthew: them. My favorite is ChatGPT. Still. Still. The Google Gemini is pretty good. I'm starting to use that more when I have questions that I know direct access to like a Google search would provide me a really good outcome.
Matthew: So for instance for the Superbowl yesterday, I wanted to see how difficult it would be to make a homemade queso dip So instead of asking chat GPT that question I just went right to Google Gemini because I knew it had access to all these recipe data Right from all the different websites that it scrapes and so it gave me a recipe.
Matthew: I'm like actually, you know I don't have these ingredients that you're telling me to make this nacho cheese with You're trying to make Chili's queso
Josh: Yeah, from the restaurant Chili's?
Matthew: No, no. And so then I told her what I had and so boom, here's how you'd make it with your ingredients, which was pretty cool.
Matthew: Oh,
Brent: I see. So I guess that's where it's going to become more challenging is just as more AI models come out and people are going to have to decipher what to use and not to use, I think that's where it gets even more confusing.
Josh: That's a good point. I agree with you.
Brent: And do some of, does some of that competition go away?
Brent: I'm assuming some of it eventually does, right? Because just like everything else, like competition after a while starts to narrow and then you have like, you know, no more Yahoo or AOL and everything's just Google. You know? I mean, I know that some of that still exists, but not a lot.
Josh: Yeah. We're not even to the point where there's like acquisitions or mergers with any of these companies.
Brent: Yeah, right. But I would assume it kind of funnels down a little bit until maybe it's just chatter. Some kind of open AI that starts to limit some of the outside competition that's out there Because I'm not using all those are using all of those
Josh: I've used perplexity. I've used Gemini. I'm still using chat GPT the most But not as much.
Josh: I mean those are one off cases chat GPT is primarily what I'm using
Brent: and when you guys So we have a software that we're able to utilize where we can run client tackers tax returns through an AI software It's able to give us planning opportunities with a client You know, things that they can make changes to in their tax return can find errors.
Brent: I mean, what has been your guys thoughts when using that with clients?
Matthew: It's good. I mean, it points out a lot of interesting information that, you know, I wouldn't normally catch or that the accountant wouldn't normally catch. I got a client where it caught that they were doing Roth conversions and the client never told me they were doing Roth conversions.
Matthew: There's a new client I started working with, which is really good. However, I, I do think this is getting a little bit in the weeds that if I was to run a return through like a chat, GPT probably give me almost the same output,
Josh: just maybe not as organized or
Matthew: visually appeasing. You'd have to organize it yourself.
Josh: Yeah. And I think that's where, yeah, if the more I thinking about our conversation, it's really saving time because like, can we go dig through a tax return and find that same information out? Sure, but I'm going to go be looking through 40 pages of tax return to find what I want when I can use a technology tool that's going to tell me exactly where everything's at and I can just search it or look at it and simulate even going forward.
Josh: I mean, it's just the time saving is absolutely amazing.
Matthew: So I totally derailed this conversation and took it to AI again. But I just think that's a main reason why people, if you're in your sixties and you're considering retiring within the next few years, why this year makes a lot of sense,
Brent: right? Cause like, let's say you have a job where you're constantly using Excel.
Brent: Yeah. I don't think that AI is at a point right now that it can replace what you're able to do with Excel, but there will be a time in the next few years. Where what you need to do in Excel is automated for you. You, you could punch a couple of sentences into ChatGPT and it's going to be able to create you an Excel spreadsheet that does all the things that you want it to do.
Brent: Hey, Brent. Sorry to hear, man. Well, I've used it. It's already here, but it's not perfect. I've used it many, many, many times and it's not clean yet.
Matthew: Let me show you a demo of the, the new, the new browser based agent that OpenAI put out. ChatGPT. ChatGPT. They have a, they have a new one on their premium model.
Matthew: It'll, it'll It'll do all that for someone.
Brent: And you said that's $200 a month? Yeah. So, so, and is that how chat GPT is getting all of their revenue is from subscriptions? Subscriptions?
Matthew: Yeah. Up until a while ago, it was one of the fastest growing subscription services ever. But there's a few different ais that have since passed them.
Matthew: I was actually looking at those today. But anyway, so you look at AI, you look at everything going on on the fiscal side of the government inflation is coming in, inflation is going to come in you cut government spending, you're going to have inflation come down. That's, that's pretty simple math.
Matthew: So inflation's coming in, interest rates are still pretty high, you're getting a good, you're getting a good safe return on your money right now. It's a really nice time to retire this year.
Brent: And I think also one of the benefits is, is that social security, you've gotten very nice cost of living adjustments over the last three to four to five years.
Brent: And I was looking back at some client social security projections that we have done like five, six, seven years ago. And looked at them year by year by year and seen what the increases have been over the last several years. It's pretty remarkable that we've been able to see the type of increases like somebody who's delayed social security, or we projected five, six years ago, it's like 1, 000 more a month right now.
Brent: Then what we originally projected and that's just them working and those cost of living adjustments.
Matthew: Yeah, some of the new clients I'm working with and Josh. I don't know if you've seen this as well But I'm looking at like total Social security income between husband and wife if they're both solid earners at like 80 grand a year Yeah, and that wasn't like that It wasn't like that when I started in the industry for sure.
Josh: But it is offsetting just cost of living overall. I mean, everything is just more expensive. We all talk about that on almost every podcast. So, but I'll go back. I'll put my financial planner head on, you know, this, you have to make sure that you can also afford to retire. Right. You have to have a plan. It has to be by design.
Josh: So is this potentially a good year? Sure. But you know, I think everyone's perfect year is tailored to them.
Brent: Yeah, that's why they need to come see you. I think another good reason that it can begin to make sense for people to retire this year, maybe better than some others is if you are able to get, let's call it 4 percent in a savings account.
Brent: And if you were able to refinance your home, you know, three years ago at 2. 75 or three, three and a quarter, three and a half. I mean, you, you have a nice difference between what you're paying on your mortgage and what you're able to make. And. There's not a lot of times where it's going to be like that.
Brent: Plus that increase we saw from social security plus good market stock market performances. That's where I think people's money at for retirement is probably at some of the highest it's ever been at.
Matthew: Yeah. You're going out on a high. Yes. You're, you're leaving on a high and right before this big technology shift comes and selling high.
Matthew: Sure. Yeah. You're selling high. Absolutely. All right. Anything left guys?
Matthew: You have any recommends for me? I do. So I'm gonna go with the shark ninja product. I like shark ninja. I think they make really good products. I think I talked about the ice cream maker last year. I got there. It's called
Brent: shark ninja. I thought it was just ninja.
Matthew: No, the full company is shark ninja.
Matthew: They have two, two, two brands. They have the shark brand and they have the ninja brand. What does the
Brent: shark brand do?
Matthew: I think it's more like like vacuum cleaners and that kind of like house cleaning stuff. Is that right, Josh?
Josh: I don't know, man. I'd have to fact check you on this one. I thought it was just called Ninja.
Josh: No, it's Shark Ninja. Are you talking about the, are you talking about the products like your ice cream machine?
Matthew: Yeah, yeah. I've never seen Shark with a Ninja. The company they're called is Shark Ninja.
Josh: Yeah, but I think the company's called Ninja and then they have a line. That's like shark.
Matthew: No, it's a publicly traded stock.
Matthew: It's called shark ninja. Look it up. Okay, take your symbols SN All right. So what's your product with shark ninja ninja crispy? It's for the kitchen line. What is that? So you're gonna like this. It's a non toxic air fryer. So it's pretty cool It's a little contraption that you put over a glass bowl and it's an air fryer and it like cooks your food Just like how an air fryer would
Brent: So, do you, does it come with a glass bowl or do you use a glass bowl from home?
Matthew: Yeah, yes, it comes with like their special heat safe glass bowls that work with this air fryer. But I guess, I didn't know this because I'm not an air fryer person, but I've always wanted one. I guess air fryers release, like a lot of like toxins.
Josh: Yeah. I'm glad you're joining us in the future. Finally.
Josh: So have you never had
Brent: an air fryer before? You haven't had one of the toxin ones? You know, I had one when I was in like, he was
Josh: so impressed. This thing makes the chicken nuggets crispy. He was texting
Matthew: because like, my kids eat chicken nuggets, right? And like, you know, oh, they're great. Look at my belly, you know, I'm stealing with you
Matthew: So I I the dad tax, yeah. The, I, you know, I'm taking my dad tax. I'm like, man, these are the. These are so much better than the microwave or the oven. Like, Oh, they're so good. So this is the first air fryer you've had. I had one in my early twenties, like probably like a gen one air fryer model when they just came out, but it wasn't very good.
Matthew: And I threw it away. Got it. Like it got gross inside and like it. You know how like one of those non stick things you could tell it's like non stick anymore and everything's sticking and it's like starting to chip and peel? Got it. And I threw it out.
Brent: Yeah, I've never used one before, so I think I need to get with the times.
Josh: You've never used an air fryer? No, never. Are you serious? These are great. Like this, you need the one I have. Dude, I did chicken wings in the air fryer for Super Bowl. And they came out great, you said. Excellent. Yeah, I need to get one chicken nuggets french fries anything you want fried.
Matthew: There's this girl I follow on Instagram and she cooks like frozen steaks in this air fryer that I got.
Matthew: I'm like, wow, that is really cool That's interesting. Yeah, have you tried that yet? Have you fact checked me yet?
Josh: Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I did. What am I right? Okay. So the company is called Shark Ninja. Okay. I told you. Okay.
Matthew: But it's just the two brands. Yes. They're Shark and Ninja, which is what I said five minutes ago.
Matthew: I wasn't listening
Josh: to you. So you guys never pay attention to me, but it's all the same. It's yeah. Shark Ninja. Okay. But they're two different brands. They make two different things. No, I understand. Is that what
Matthew: you said? Yeah. I have a shark vacuum cleaner and then all my, my, I have the Ninja ice here.
Josh: You're a shark Ninja. Okay. Yeah.
Brent: All right. So
Matthew: my
Brent: turn, so I'm going to go with it's, well, it's baseball season opening night opening ceremonies is February 28th for Vineyard Little League and March 1st, kicking off first games. And so big season ahead. So my recommendation is a Mr. Heater. It's called the big buddy propane heater.
Brent: And what it is is it's like a little portable heater that takes a little small pro propane tank cans that you just kind of put into it. And if anybody's like me, I'm always freezing at the game. I don't care when it is, like from, from, well, the time season starts to pretty much the time it ends. Last year, I was freezing every time I was there.
Brent: And as a coach, like I can't sit there with a heater on, although I'd want to when I have to be there when I, I'm not coaching, like I want a heater. So I was able to get one. I'm going to load that thing up. Like I've used it when I've watched my son play for this off season. It's a game changer.
Brent: Cause now I'm not sitting there freezing. Like I have a little heater sitting in there.
Matthew: So like, do all the parents have these?
Brent: Yes. Really? A lot of parents have them.
Josh: So do you like put everything in like a wagon? Yes. You have to. And you have your chairs and now you have your heater. You take ice chest.
Brent: Yeah. Or just a small ice chest for the kids or baseball stuff. Yeah. Snacks, water, everything. Yeah, I mean our car is full every time we go to a game. Is your kid doing the big league chew yet? What do you mean, like the gum? Yeah. Yeah, like they do that periodically, but that's not like a regular thing. The kids like the seeds.
Brent: Seeds, yeah. Kids like seeds. I like seeds. A lot of parents have gone away from like all the sugary drinks, like the Gatorades, they don't do a lot of, or The power is prime, the primes, a lot of people, parents are against prime, rightfully so. Cause it's got like a lot of bad ingredients. Like most parents don't want their kids.
Brent: So what are they giving them? Like watermelon juice? No, I don't know. Just waters or everybody's different. Everybody has different preferences. Like you see a lot of the no sugar kind of Gatorade and stuff, which that stuff's probably a pretty bad for you. Also body armor. No, they have like a low calorie sugar.
Brent: I've seen some body armor. A lot of kids drink water, you know, or they have their water bottles with them.
Matthew: What about Relight, like the one I use? I don't know what that is. That's a good recommend. That's the one we use, right?
Josh: Yeah. Relight's the hydration What is it powder?
Matthew: Yeah, it's it's like electrolytes.
Matthew: It's old school electrolyte powder it's salt and You know some flavoring and then you just put it in your water bottle shake it up and it tastes really good
Josh: interesting That's been my favorite one so far. Yeah, what do we have for us? Landman, I just started this show Paramount plus Billy Bob Thornton.
Josh: It's a new show. I feel like it's pretty popular right now I forget a lot of people talking about it, but it's good.
Matthew: It's Taylor Sheridan. Yeah, it's the same guy who wrote Yellowstone Yeah, he wrote a lot of stuff at 19. I've been watching it with Haley It's funny because she worked on one of Taylor Sheridan's films hell or high water
Josh: Oh, I remember that.
Josh: I went to the premiere with you guys. Yeah. Did you remember? Yeah,
Matthew: you and Haley invited me and my wife. Oh, her friendship must've been tight back then. That was fun. You don't remember that? Yeah, no, I do. And what he was good. She was saying that like already in like a land man, there's like a lot of shooting happening at the same areas.
Matthew: So she said that was NRC, but I'm on episode two. It's been really good so far. It's
Josh: good. Yeah. It's kind of like a, yeah. Texas oil Yellowstone and John Ham's in it. John Ham said there do there's so many stars anymore isn't it? Yeah, he's in it a lot. What's her name?
Josh: Yeah, is that her last name? Billy Bob's wife in the show.
Josh: It's good though, but you should check it out
Brent: I don't think I have paramount. How do you guys have all these? You have my login?
Josh: I share we all share them you want you have my login
Matthew: except we're on the We're on the kind where like you got to watch commercials and I might like have to upgrade to commercial free
Josh: Well, just upgrade it on there next when you're doing it.
Matthew: Yeah. I'm going to have to, I don't want to upgrade your account though. Just do it.
Brent: I'm surprised you haven't already. It seems like something you would do. I didn't know.
Josh: So we were talking about this when I got paramount plus. It was just like one package, right? Like, okay, you sign up and I got it for soccer because they showed the U S games on there and now they're showing more games.
Josh: But anyways, there wasn't like options for like commercials, you know, free, it was just, you signed up for paramount plus and then we're watching land man. And I'm like, why is there commercials? And then Came in talking about it. Matt's like, yeah, they have different like tiers of their service now. Like Hulu.
Josh: I think Hulu does that too I'm like, I didn't even know like upgrade it. So I'll upgrade it for you. Remind me before I leave to this
Brent: This is weird watching commercials speaking of subscriptions based on that big Lakers trade I need to get direct TV or something figured out because I need to watch Laker game.
Matthew: Oh big game coming up tonight We're recording Monday night Lucas debut Yes, it can be on national TV. Cause I don't have direct TV. It's on ESPN.
Josh: Talk to me after I'll, I'll hook you up with how to watch Laker games.
Brent: Yeah. I, I, I called them to get direct TV and then they started trying to run my credit. I was like, why do I need to run my credit for TV subscription?
Brent: Just made absolutely no sense to me. Cause like you look at Netflix and you, and all these and YouTube TV and all these subscription services. You don't need to run your social security. So why does DirecTV need to run my social security number for me to get TV service?
Josh: Because they're living in the past.
Brent: It's the old way to do it.
Matthew: This is a garbage company, you think they're implementing AI? Nope. They should.
Brent: They should.
Josh: It's crazy how much YouTube TV has gone up though. Yeah. We sent out, right when it started it was 35. It's a hundred
Brent: now. Yeah. Wow. All right. Well, as a advisors, we love helping people and that's why we're here.
Brent: If you are thinking about retiring or thinking about planning for your retirement, thinking about that transition to retirement, or just have that murky financial plan where you just don't know how all things come together feel free to reach out to us. You can go to evermont. com. And we can go through a complimentary consultation with you and a phone call to just kind of get an idea of how things process.
Brent: Lay out and then start to kind of work on a general plan. But that's why we do it and we've implemented AI. And so we enjoy doing and making all these changes. So if you have questions, feel free to reach out, but as always, thank you for listening.
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