Ep. 121: Tariff Tantrum—What It Means for Your Money
The X's and O's
Tariffs are back—and they're not subtle. In this emergency episode of the Retirement Plan Playbook, Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal, and Joshua Winterswyk break down the sudden and aggressive return of U.S. tariffs, the economic chaos they’ve already triggered, and how investors should respond.
From market drops to rising prices, supply chain shakeups, and a looming recession, the guys unpack it all—with sharp insight, strong opinions, and real strategies for staying on track.
Here’s what we get into:
Trump’s tariff shock: What was announced and why it blindsided markets.
Are we already in a recession? Larry Fink thinks so.
Tariffs = Taxes: What this means for U.S. consumers and businesses.
Can manufacturing come back to the U.S.—or is that just a fantasy?
What investors should (and shouldn't) do right now: rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, cash management.
How this could affect the election, Congress, and Powell’s next move.
This episode is your full breakdown of what just happened, why it matters, and how to respond with a level head.
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Transcript
Disclaimer: This transcript was automatically generated. Please excuse any typos or transcription errors.
Welcome to the Retirement Plan Playbook hosted by Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal, and Joshua Winterswyk of Evermont Wealth. This podcast dives deep into investment strategies, retirement planning, and current events, equipping you with the insights needed to craft a robust retirement playbook adaptable to any political or economic climate.
Join Brent, Matthew, and Joshua as they guide you through the complexities of retirement planning. Offering expert advice. to tackle challenges and the later stages of your journey. It's time to build your optimal retirement playbook. Now let's dive into today's episode.
Matthew: Alright guys. Hey we don't have a lot of time for pleasantries today but Brent, we're happy to have you back. We missed you, Josh. I'm happy you're back from vacation as well. I missed you.
Brent: I heard the podcast hit all time highs without me here.
Matthew: That's the only thing hitting all time highs.
Brent: Yeah. You're telling me.
Matthew: But yeah it's not, it's not good. What have we got? We're here to talk about tariffs and the market reaction. Right? Welcome back, Brent. Hold on.
Brent: Thank, thank you. Slow down. I, it wasn't that intentional. Well, no, it wasn't intentional that I had to miss the last two pods. It wasn't ideal.
I love being here with you guys, but, I'm happy to be back here.
We're happy you're
Matthew: back. Everybody's happy you're back. For the emergency pod, we've never done an emergency pod before. I thought we did one. Did we? I think so. In the
Joshua: beginning. Probably in 2022, right? Yeah. We think it was in like the beginning.
So 2020. Then
Brent: we were trying to, in Covid pods, we were out output. Remember the, the zoom, the audio was kinda a little bit more tough then.
Joshua: Yeah, it was. You guys made the joke that I had covid.
Matthew: We did. Well, this, this is like covid except it's not a virus.
Brent: That's true.
Matthew: It's a person,
Brent: right? That's causing it.
Yes. Well, let's put some context to the story. So on April 2nd, president Trump declared a national economic emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which basically imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all US imports, starting on April 5th with higher rates of up to 60% in some cases, which to me is like extremely high.
On countries with large trade deficits with the us, this affects over 2.5 trillion in annual imports.
Matthew: . I think the most important thing here is that this was unexpected. So we knew the tariffs were coming, but this was a quote unquote worse than expected tariff announcement from Trump.
I think the market was, was looking to price in something around like a 15 to 10% across the board tariff. And like you said, this was a lot higher. And so when Lunik pulled out that chart, the, the famous chart with all the different percentages on it of the different countries, the made up data, that's when the market started to crumble.
And we've since been going down. Now this is the third day down in a row. It does look like it's trying to find a bottom. Today's Monday as we're recording, and it's probably ripe for a, a pretty big bounce here. But yeah, worse than expected.
Brent: Let, let me say this, that, you know, one question people can be asking is like, why didn't we sell securities position stocks, whatever, before this happened.
If we knew this was gonna happen this way, well. The Trump administration did this press conference right when the market closed, so it was at one o'clock Pacific Standard time, right? So the market had already closed. They then went into this press conference, and in that press conference, that's where they announced these tariffs that were much higher than what was already projected.
And so the next day when the market opened, you know, it was already doom and gloom. There was no preventing this from happening. We just knew they were gonna make the announcement. But it was already factored in. You didn't know it was
Joshua: gonna be as drastic as it was. So to trade before unexpected news would be really hard to do.
Matthew: You can't sell, like, you don't sell events like this. I mean, we're, we're investors. Our clients the listeners who are listening to this, you're an investor, you're not a trader, and you gotta know the difference. Traders trade, and they're the ones who could sell and move in and out of positions. But as a long-term investor, your play is never to sell on these kind of events.
Brent: I mean, the average tariff rate jumped from 2.5%, 2024 to now 16.5%, 2025. And that's the highest since 1937. Like that has tremendous impact on people in businesses.
Joshua: Yes. And can have a huge impact very quickly. I think that's one of the biggest concerns, that this isn't something that is gonna take a long time for businesses and consumers to fill.
Matthew: Yeah, we're most likely already in a recession right now because of the tariffs. BlackRock, CEO, Larry Fink was saying today that he believes we're in a recession, that he's been talking to a lot of business leaders and they're pulling back investment and just they're uncertain and they can't make purchasing decisions.
Joshua: Could be inflationary, slowed down the economy and yeah, we're already in a recession before we even know it. Yeah. So,
Brent: and, and what happens a lot the time is the market responds to these recessions and the economy's not filling it right now. I mean, most businesses aren't yet being impacted because this just started last week.
Mm-hmm. But usually you'll feel this comes, what, September? Beginning of next year. Everything's gonna start slowing down if this stays the way it is, and then you know there's gonna be impact to people. People are, start losing jobs.
Matthew: Yeah. I think that the job losses will probably start coming, you know, later, later this quarter into the, the summer, like you were saying, Brent, but I, I do think there's gonna be a, a big hit to consumer spending now. You know, most of the, I I think like 50% of all consumption comes from people who own, you know, stocks. And with the market dropping like it's been, I mean, I, I personally don't want to go buy anything. Like, I'm ho I'm holding off on my expenses.
Are you?
Brent: Oh, definitely. I don't wanna spend money right now. Yeah. And I think prices have to drop, I mean, at some point. Businesses are gonna be pinched, but now they're having to force to pay higher prices for things.
Matthew: Yeah. Well we actually don't know that. That's just speculated. But that's a whole different rabbit hole.
We could go down the, probably not today,
Joshua: we had a conversation, remember about the tariffs and especially in the auto industry about cars, international cars coming in and paying, you know, tariff, which is a tax. So just go buy an American car. But do you think that then just the American cars are able to increase prices because like you were, we're comparing like, you know, world or global calm anchors to us, us not having an additional tariff or tax.
But wouldn't that then give the ability for American car makers to raise prices?
Matthew: It could, but they shouldn't. Like Ford came out last week and said that they are offering like special employee pricing to people to go buy a new car from them made in the USA. And you've seen Tesla Tesla's slash their prices for five years in a row.
Now. It'd
Joshua: just be interesting to see if these sheriffs do stick around, if that is the case, not only just with car makers, but with other American industries and businesses, which could be inflationary, which we already know.
Matthew: It is weird because I actually completely agree with the auto tariffs. I think it makes a ton of sense for our country.
And I agree with the tariffs on China. I think that makes a ton of sense for our country. I just don't agree with everything else.
Brent: Yeah, it's drastic. So tariffs are projected to raise $1.5 trillion in revenue over the next decade, but consumer prices are rising with an estimate of $1,900 annual tax increase per US household.
Could like people actually afford, because we know that tariffs are tax, right? Like people are going to be paying more in tax potential taxes and for goods now going forward,
Matthew: well, kind of, we don't know that. And that's kind of like what all the, the policy wonks you're hearing on TV keeps saying. Because that's what the economic textbooks say.
But we, we theoretically do not know who is gonna get the cost, who's gonna pay the cost. The importer pays the tariff,
so we're not sure if it's gonna come back and, and slap American consumers. We're like nobody knows, is just guessing. If you
Joshua: look at through, through history though, tariffs really have never worked Correct. And it, it's, it's created more. Inflationary Glo economic slowdown than it has, you know, any sort of progress.
So I know you're saying we don't know, but if you're looking at other tariffs that have been implemented in the past of this kind of magnitude, it hasn't equated to like a lot of success.
Matthew: So I saw this funny post online and it was saying how. Every a hundred years or so, they tried tariffs and it was like, why?
It's like, oh, 'cause the previous generation died off. Who thought tariffs were a good idea? Yeah, that's pretty good. It,
Brent: it, it makes sense. And if it did work, like wouldn't we be negotiating like micros amounts, like small negotiations every year of shaving a, a point here or half a point there. Where you're just renegotiating, but obviously they're, instead
Joshua: of starting a trade war,
Brent: yeah.
Instead of charting a trade war, where now in retaliation Canada imposed 25% tariffs on us for of $155 billion of US goods and Mexico and China followed suit. So now where, where is this gonna lead us down this rabbit hole that we know hasn't worked and so large and so
Joshua: quick. I mean, it's just making everybody very, very nervous.
Right. With all of this uncertainty hopefully this doesn't last long. That's my take. I, I mean, there's, there's the other side of this. I know you've mentioned if these tariffs last a long time. But what if they
Brent: don't? So what, what do you mean doesn't last a long time? Do you think they they renegotiate?
Yeah. I mean, it comes down and says we won. I mean, that's
Joshua: the, that's the idea, right? Because I feel like everyone's talking about if tariffs last a long time. Right? But let's say the economy does really, really slow down. We see a much larger correction in the market. Trump gets the negotiations done, like he's said, he wants to, and the tariffs are removed.
And this is only a 2, 3, 4 month period that we went through this tax or tariff. What happens then?
Matthew: Yeah. I mean, Trump's in trouble right now and I think that's kind of what you're alluding to. Yes. Trump's in big trouble. The market has called Trump's bluff. That's why we're going down. This has happened before, other times in history.
It happened to the uk. The market called the UK's bluff and they had a reverse course. Right now the stock market is quote unquote, you know, calling Trump's bluff, and it most likely will keep going down until Trump changed his path.
Brent: What would be a theoretic victory for the us? Is it somewhere in the middle?
Like, Hey, we renegotiate these terms. China met us halfway, Canada, Mexico, Japan, they all met us halfway. We got better terms now going forward and you know, for the next decade or two this is gonna really help us. But does that, does that really like price of good start potentially really going up? So is that really a victory?
Joshua: I don't know that I get what you're saying. And is it like, I don't know if it is, and does this even just slow us down from focusing on things that are. Like we do better as well. You know, one of the big things is bringing manufacturing back to the us but we have to ask ourselves, do we even want that?
Matthew: We're not bringing manufacturing back to the the us. I know, but
Brent: yes, we can. We actually can. No, but do we even want to do that,
Matthew: guys? Guys? Okay. We're not gonna be making yoga pants or Nikes here in the us Yes. We Nobody wants actually can. Nobody wants that job.
Brent: Yes. No they don't. But the way that we would do is by robots
Matthew: in 2020, we couldn't even get people to come in and be dishwashers at the restaurants.
Brent: Correct. But there is now potential in the next five to seven years. That robots can be making shoes and yoga pants, the, and things like that.
Matthew: You're a hundred percent right. The future of the factory is AI and robotics. You are correct. I. It's not about Americans and the heartland going into factories and working, unfortunately,
Brent: It's, that is never going to happen 'cause you're never gonna get them to do it as cheap as China or some of these other countries could do.
Well,
Matthew: that's one of the talking points of the current administration right now.
Brent: Robots,
Matthew: no. That they're gonna put Americans back to work in the factories. That is a
Joshua: hundred percent not gonna happen. Yeah, that's that's what I'm saying, that Do we want that? No, we do not. No, that's not the one. We focus on what we're already doing Well, right?
Yeah. Which is building big businesses. America does that. Great. And let's focus on tech and ai, which we also do very, very well, which we've seen.
Brent: Correct me if I'm wrong though, you have to have like good immigration rules if you're going to try to fill those jobs, right? Like you would have to be filling 'em with people who are immigrating over and you would have to have policies in place.
To pay them at lower wages, which is like really like opposite of what we're doing here. Well,
Joshua: and that's a
Brent: lot of variables to that to even be implemented. So I mean, I, I don't know how that could even be possible, but you, you have to think that there's some internal conversations of people in the White House and the administration that know what they're talking about.
But I don't know, like I start to lose faith that that is ever the case.
Matthew: Yeah, it seems to be the baseline case right now is. They're acting crazy to show how serious they are. Right. Like that's the only reason that's, it's this, it escalated this quickly. Yeah. I think it's only about one country.
Truthfully. I think it's really all just about China.
Brent: I agree. I mean, is the fentanyl thing a real concern on their part or are they just using that as the scapegoat?
Matthew: It's a huge concern. But I, I think it also has to do with the way China manipulates their currency. And then TikTok, I know is included in this and the stealing of, you know, American ip.
So ho hopefully, I think when he gets a deal done with China I would imagine that's when we get the, that big market rip and this will be all over.
Brent: Yeah. I, I think that if there's something that can put us on the other side of this, that would be extremely helpful and that has to do with. The way that we are being taken advantage of by China.
And it's been like that for a long time, but China's never going to be fair. You look across the board between, you know, their relationships with other countries and what they do. Like, I don't know that
Joshua: how realistic is a good deal anyway. Yeah, exactly. So are we suffering for like an unrealistic expectation of getting a great deal done with China?
Brent: So, I don't know on when we get to the other side of this hopefully we get this big rip in the market, but my question that would be, is. We renegotiate terms. Could at this point a recession be avoided, or is it imminent? Probably already in a recession, but can you stay in a recession for just for a couple weeks?
Joshua: I don't know. I mean, we did during Covid, but it's just hard to answer that question because every day that tariffs implemented, every day that goes past. Disrupts supply chains, disrupts economy every single day that these are gonna continue. So it's hard to answer that question without knowing how long this is gonna last for.
Brent: So then my next question that becomes there's this spat that keeps happening between Trump and Jerome Powell and who's the head of the Federal Reserve, and he's now trying to get him to lower rates. Because he knows that's the one thing optically that can make Trump look a little better in this situation.
But Powell seems like he's pretty hard on on. They spoke on Friday that they're waiting for economic data to say it's the true time to cut rates, but does pouting to step in and just give into Trump right now,
Matthew: the Fed has been behind the curve my whole career on cutting rates and raising rates. They're consistently behind the curve.
They're looking at old data. Until they update their data models, they will always be behind the curve. He's behind the curve right now. He should have already cut it. If we were gonna do this tariff thing seriously at the rates we're doing it, we should have had a coordinated effort. With the Fed, with you know, Washington with business leaders, they probably should have set up some kind of special interest free loan program for the small businesses.
We haven't even talked about the small businesses that are gonna be ravaged by this. Mm-hmm. Imagine being, owning a manufacturing company here in America today where you get your. Your parts from overseas, from China, from Vietnam, from
Brent: anywhere. I mean, you, you, we could talk about our business here. I mean, we're obviously on a different scale, different type of business, but this definitely impacts our business tremendously.
It impacts everybody. Yeah.
Joshua: Yeah. And I get what you're saying. I mean, your small business down the street now is paying 10, 20, potentially 30% more. For everything they need to operate. What kind of business can adjust that quickly to that much of a price increase? Yeah. None. You're not, you're going, you know, fail,
Matthew: you're most likely gonna have to lay off your employees or go outta business.
Or go out of business. Yeah. Completely. Yeah. So they needed some kind of loan program or some kind of incentive to, for the businesses to keep the workers.
Joshua: Mm-hmm.
Brent: And at what cost is that?
Matthew: So government printing
Joshua: money, unless these sheriffs don't last that long.
Brent: Yeah. I mean I think that there's probably two, like three likely scenarios, right?
It's negotiated deescalation. I think that's what they're trying to do right now, right? Oh, that's what we need
Matthew: to do right now. That's
Brent: they're, they're talking with all these countries and they supposedly, like international foreign leaders are all flying in and they're trying to work out deals and then.
And, and part of that too to me is like, okay, if they work out a deal, it's just at the end of the day, we're just gonna be paying higher prices for goods. Like we're still not in a great position, even if deals get negotiated, but, or we get in a full scale trade war. So that's another option. Or us just says, you know what, we're gonna push back.
Like we're not gonna put up with this. It's either comes from Congress or from the big donors, big corporations, they put enough pressure on the government and they say, you know. This is killing us too much. You need to change. You need to make a change. Right. And is it maybe a combination of all three of those?
Matthew: Yeah. Congress can stop it. According to what I've read, they're saying that they could, they could pass a bill that would stop his emergency authority. Authority, ah,
Joshua: emergency authority,
Matthew: authority that he has exactly.
Brent: And do you think that happens?
Matthew: I think we're days away from that happening. You get the market down another five to 10%.
Yeah. Congress is gonna act 'cause there's a midterms next year. Those phones are
Joshua: gonna be wild. Yep. If we see that. And then you're gonna have to deal with inflation data that's gonna come out and you're gonna start to see unemployment go up like we just talked about. And. All of those politicians are going to be pressuring for this to stop.
Matthew: Mm-hmm.
Brent: So in 2022, we had stocks, money leaving the stock market right. And going to bonds. Bonds were attractive finally at that point. And now we had money coming outta bonds back into stocks over like the last two years, we saw 25 plus returns, percent returns in the s and p 500 over the last two years each year.
Now we just gave away a 12 month return almost in basically the last three days, let's call it. Well, you know, part of it was kind of leading up to that, but we've gave away a tremendous amount of returns. We're wildly negative in the returns since Trump was elected, and now we're sitting here at this point.
And is it possible that now all this money that has been in US stocks. It's not necessarily going back to bonds, but it's going to international stocks, global stocks, emerging markets, and are, are we gonna start shifting that from what has been a very strong market for the last decade to now people investing in the global markets, not with where the,
Matthew: the tariffs are.
International markets are getting blown up worse than our markets. They have. But just the last three days too. Yeah.
Joshua: Yeah. 'cause before that, you saw money flowing to international and emerging markets. A hundred percent. That's what provided a lot of the good growth. 'cause dollar was really strong and there was a lot more opportunity in those international emerging markets.
But now because of these tariffs and what's going on, they've also tanked. Right. But I think it's flight to safety. I think you're gonna see dollars throw back into safer investments.
Brent: And what, what are those?
Matthew: Treasury Bills. Treasury
Brent: bills. Yeah.
But then if, if the feds cut rates, treasury bills are not as attractive anymore. I think pe
Joshua: I think people are okay with that though. The, I'm just talking about kind of if we're putting 'em in a category, retail investor saying, I'm gonna go find a, you know, 4% treasury bill and I'm okay with that. I don't care if rates come down in 12 months.
But I don't wanna lose 30% in the stock market.
Brent: I mean, if you're Trump and you're sitting there and you know what's going on, you're probably getting pressure from a lot of people. Are you sitting there right now, second guessing yourself, or are you just so adamant in your position? Brent,
Matthew: I don't think any of us could get inside the mind of Donald Trump.
I don't think it's possible. I have no idea what the guy's thinking right now.
Joshua: I don't think he reverts that quickly of what he's been, you know, pushing for this whole time of the last decades. He's been talking about, you know, implementing these types of tariffs and he campaigned on this, so I don't think.
So far in four days, or let's call it five days, there's enough pressure for him to say, let's stop. He has a plan and he's going to implement that plan. So I, I don't think it's gonna turn around tomorrow, is what I'm saying. How long do you think this lasts? I hope, I hope he does turn around. I don't think he's going to, but I hope it doesn't last any longer than now.
To be honest, I'm just very concerned 'cause the longer this lasts, the more damage is gonna be done and I don't know how much that can hurt us going forward.
Matthew: I think though more what you're saying is probably damage to like the economy Correct. And damage to. Everyday people in a changing of how we've done things, not necessarily damage to the stock market.
'cause that damage is already done, right?
Joshua: That damage is already done in the stock market. Yes, that is correct. More damage to the economy and the, and kind of the American people, small business owners like we were talking about, just overall projection of the economy. The stock market though, like we talked about, I mean, in my opinion, tariffs go away.
Fed cuts rates, market's gonna skyrocket.
Brent: Right, because part of a conversation we were having last week is, you know, the midterm election isn't that far away. Nope. Next year. And if sediment doesn't change quickly, you know, that puts that at jeopardy and then you have a still mate for the rest of the two years of his presidency.
Nothing gets done, nothing happens.
Matthew: If it goes worse and things flip, the man has the potential to be impeached. It's not gonna take many Republicans to move over to the dem side in voting because you have already had Republicans speaking out against this. Absolutely. And then you do a midterm election
Brent: next year, and if it goes blue,
Matthew: ugh.
Brent: Yeah. Yeah. And then we're back to square one and nothing happened and there was no good of any of this.
Matthew: Right. But
Brent: this
Matthew: is gonna ruin his whole agenda.
Brent: Yeah.
Joshua: Tread carefully.
Brent: Yeah. I mean, I, I, I'm sure that they're having those discussions, I would hope. But I would hope too, I mean, okay, so now, now let's get into like the, the important part for like why people are probably even listening to this pod.
What do investors do now? Are you buying, I mean, well you've had experiences. I can tell you about my own experiences about buying too early in a, a declining market. Should clients be selling, should they be holding? Should they be buying if they're sitting on cash? Like what do clients do right now?
Matthew: You have to stay disciplined.
And what stay disciplined means is don't do anything. Making a move right now, selling outta your portfolio changing it around could wreck your financial goals for the next five to 10 years. Making moves during market panics is the number one mistake I see people make when I get a new client and they're like, oh, I put my money to cash.
In 2022 or 2008 or whatever the scary scenario was, and I look at their portfolio, I'm like, man, you should probably have three or $400,000 more than you have today with like your income, your savings rate, and you just making that one move jeopardized your retirement.
Joshua: It's the theme of our podcast though, when we tell our listeners all the time, it's too late.
You know, if you're listening to this, asking yourself what you should do. It's already too late. So like you said, stay disciplined. Make sure you're holding that portfolio because the time to review the portfolio was last year.
Matthew: Right?
Joshua: Right. Yeah. We talked about that on the podcast last year. The time to rebalance was last year, the time to tax loss harvest.
So if you're listening to all of like good investor principles, you made changes last year.
Brent: The hard part is, is is the people that supported Trump and the administration who, we know mathematically, statistically should be rebalancing. Put a lot of faith in what he was gonna be doing and didn't want to rebalance.
Yeah, you're right. And that was hard to do to rebalance at that time. Mm-hmm. And so people are studying here now. With wiping out almost a year's worth of gains, regretting that they didn't earn rebalance, regretting, they didn't rebalance
Matthew: long term, though, I think this is a, a great opportunity for investors.
A hundred percent. Historically, every time the market has sold off, it's come roaring right back. And the best play is, you know, if you have extra money, this is gonna be another one of those great buying opportunities. It's
Joshua: great for the younger generation, a hundred percent great. Like these are the periods that you're hoping for, especially as you're hitting like higher earning years in the younger adult.
This is where that 401k balance is really gonna grow. And you're a big advocate of dollar cost averaging. You should already be doing that, so you're already buying shares at a lower price and make sure you're focused on the ownership. Of the shares. Right? Not necessarily the dollar amount. I think it's just a tremendous opportunity for the younger generation to get more money invested.
Brent: If you're five to 10 years away from retiring, like you're, you don't love this. You may not know you love this, but you, you should be loving this. This is absolutely perfect. I
Joshua: agree. Mm-hmm. And,
Brent: I would say one pro tip, would you be considering front loading your 401k contributions right now for this year, starting now?
Matthew: No, just because most people can't stomach the, the paycheck volatility. So I, I would say no.
Joshua: I'd say no, just behaviorally. I think what also what you're kind of saying, Matt, is you're, you're already nervous. There's a lot of uncertainty and then to take more from your paycheck. For a yes, potentially a benefit, but what if this bear market lasts a long longer, you're gonna have opportunity throughout this whole year, then,
Brent: yeah, I'm on the opposite end of it.
I'd say increase it by, you know, if someone's putting in 10%, I'd probably increase it to 15. Maybe 18% put more in this front end. It is. That would be in a situation where you have over six months of savings sitting in a, in a savings account that you could just utilize to kind of offset your paycheck reduction.
You're gonna pay less taxes potentially. I would get the money in sooner than later. I'd rather be a little early than late in this type of scenario. So I personally, I would front end it. I'm comfortable front. So you're saying if you, if it's affordable. If it's affordable, I would front end it just because I think it's a good opportunity.
Now, again, I've made a mistake many times in my career to buy too early, and Matt would always tell me, you're trying to catch a falling knife. It. It has not worked many times where you put in too early. I don't think that really applies to 401k. I'm just talking about buying stocks too early in a declining market.
One time it did work though, and that was in March of 2020. When that thing was falling hard, I was buying hard. And that actually worked out because it was a really quick V That market bounced right back up in 2020, you know, through April and May. But that was very, very rare. Like that was through Covid.
So that was an anomaly.
Matthew: Only way you're getting a V this time is if Trump cuts a bunch of deals and says, all right, back to business. Yeah. But that can happen. It can happen, but there's, let's hope
Joshua: it does.
Brent: So what would be your pro tip
Matthew: for people? What should they be doing right now? Absolutely nothing. Go about your daily life and, you know, work hard, learn new skills. But adjusting your portfolio right now is not the play,
Joshua: drown out the noise. I think a lot of people are just so consuming way too much kind of news and negative headlines and it's, it's equating to more stress and anxiety.
And it's something that we can't control. So like Matt said too, you're not doing anything portfolio wise, probably you shouldn't be. And try to kind of drown out the noise a little bit until we know more.
Brent: The one thing that I think I have been looking at with some clients have been working on was.
We've been doing a little tax lost harvesting right now. Some positions that we bought more recently are down and they have some positions that they've been thinking about selling for a long time, that they've held a long time and have good unrealized gains in them. We've just been offsetting that, so we're starting to sell some of the losses to offset some of the gains on positions we really wanted to sell years ago or last year.
And so there is some of those opportunities to kind of get out of some things that you've been holding for a while. You have some losses, just go buy and back and buy them back in 30 days. You know? So there, I think there are a few things that you can be doing, but it also takes that meticulous detail of knowing how to do it, when to do it, and I think that's where the advisor comes in.
Yeah, absolutely. So as far as I think the way that this might end up going, I mean, if you're thinking about retirement or you're thinking about retiring, you know, you're probably not sitting in a great position if you're a year away from retiring. But there's a lot you can do. In this time period to protect what you have safe for retirement, that's probably not gonna impact your cash flow.
That's gonna be comfortable. But again, it goes back to your financial plan and making sure all your ducks are in a row.
Matthew: Yeah. Good time to meet the planner, if you will, under retire. Especially to get a second set of eyes on top of that portfolio. I would imagine most people are a little bit aggressive in their 4 0 1 Ks if they haven't already met with a financial advisor before.
And they've probably taken, you know, about 20% hit right now.
Joshua: I think that for those people that are, that five to 10 year away from retirement, like you talked about, you gave a lot of good tips, Brent, on what you could potentially be doing at this time. So if you haven't researched, reviewed, or hired a planner to get working on your retirement plan, like this could be that huge opportunity before retirement to really set you up for a successful outcome.
So I just think that, you know. People who are putting off or waiting to start planning, now's that perfect time.
Brent: Yeah, I agree. And I think the other thing is like you guys have already reiterated, what you can't do is panic. Especially if you're close to retirement, you cannot panic. I wouldn't even go so far as saying you probably don't even at this point need to delay your retirement.
There could be golden handshakes or packages coming out for early retirement, so people might need to hold out and wait kind of to see what happens with that. But you cannot go and make adjustments to your 401k right now, at least for most situations or a lot of situations. Just hold the course.
Joshua: Yeah, well said.
And just one more thing, be careful out there. When these uncertain times happen, the market crashes. There's a lot of, I. Funny business that goes on. You talking about the annuity salesman or just even other products, right? Just alternatives
Brent: and just be careful life insurance products. Yes. Yes, yes. So what you're saying is the fine dining seminars are coming back right now, I'm
Joshua: assuming so.
Yep, exactly.
Brent: All right. Well, as advisors, we love helping people. That's why we're here. We're happy to get this emergency pod out to you guys so that everyone has kind of an, some insight on. What's going on right now?
This is obviously a fluid situation but if you are looking for work on your financial plan or retirement plan, you know there's multiple stages of retiring, preparing, transitioning to retirement, and enjoying retirement. We're here to help. You can go to ever vermont.com.
Matthew: Great points, Brent, but check out our Instagram as well. I think we're gonna be posting a lot more frequently, during this Tariff tantrum.
Joshua: Thank you.
Matthew: Thank you.
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