Ep. 109: Capital Gains, Stock Market Volatility, Hawaii Vacations and Unplanned Expenses
The X's and O's
In this episode of the Retirement Plan Playbook, hosts Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal, and Joshua Winterswyk discuss the Kamala Harris tax proposal, stock market seasonality, and changes to interest rates.
The episode wraps up with a conversation about the NFL season, a recent breakfast event for nurses, and product recommendations.
00:37 Hawaii Vacation Recap
05:25 Unexpected Apple Charges
13:28 Kamala Harris's Capital Gains Proposal
20:58 Seasonal Trends in the Stock Market
25:22 Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
27:53 Financial Planning Breakfast Event
30:02 NFL Season Predictions
31:13 Evermont Recommends
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Transcript
Welcome to the Retirement Plan Playbook hosted by Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal, and Joshua Winterswyk of Evermont Wealth. This podcast dives deep into investment strategies, retirement planning, and current events, equipping you with the insights needed to craft a robust retirement playbook adaptable to any political or economic climate.
Join Brent, Matthew, and Joshua as they guide you through the complexities of retirement planning. Offering expert advice. to tackle challenges and the later stages of your journey. It's time to build your optimal retirement playbook. Now let's dive into today's episode.
Brent: So tell us about your trip to Hawaii. You just came back from vacation.
Matthew: Do I look good? Do I look tan?
Brent: You don't look tan. You look like you wore a lot of sunscreen.
Joshua: He always plans it well.
Joshua: Cause he always comes back after a three day weekend.
Brent: You came back and you looked more stressed out than when you left. So how was that? A hundred percent agreed.
Matthew: Well, I thought it was in a good mood
Brent: like driving in on Tuesday after Labor Day. Were you upset? No, I like come back.
Matthew: I was tired.
Brent: Okay, I mean
Joshua: and you said you were fired up.
Brent: I was fired up I was ready to work. I was happy to be back. You know, you could have used another week off.
Joshua: I agree.
Brent: No No, so tell us about Hawaii. Where'd you go?
Matthew: I went to the Big Island. It was a great trip Got caught in a hurricane for a couple days really like a day and a half.
Joshua: Brent was worried about you, by the way. I did text you. You did text me. Yeah, it was
Matthew: after I was worried about you. You can always tell them Brent's worried about you. Cause they'll send you a text. He's getting that.
Brent: Well, there was a big storm coming your way and I wanted to make sure you didn't get blown away and you were able to get to the big island.
Matthew: Yeah, we were there and we caught it. We caught the start of it. And then it was basically a one day event.
Brent: So it was as big as they were making out to because it was like this massive hurricane that was going there.
Matthew: It sounds like it was pretty bad on one side of the island, but the Kona side, which is where we are, it stays relatively dry.
Matthew: And what everyone was telling us is the volcano on that island will knock, knocks down all the storms. So it keeps them from kind of like advancing onward to the other side of the island. And it usually just brings rain clouds. Which is pretty much what happened. It was just rain. It was just a big rainstorm
Brent: and Your son is what a year and a half.
Matthew: Yeah, so we were chasing kids Which is probably why I'm not that refreshed after going to Hawaii So I was chasing the kids around took my parents and we had a good time with them They helped out with the kids a little bit. I got to get a golf round in which was nice I was happy for you. Yeah, I sent
Joshua: that picture.
Joshua: I was the girlfriend.
Matthew: It was great I learned a couple things about my golf game though Cause I didn't bring my clubs. You
Joshua: rented clubs.
Matthew: Yeah. So I had to rent clubs and so my irons, your custom fit for me. So I was hitting the non custom fit irons thin every time.
Brent: You're hitting them better.
Matthew: No thing. So the ball wasn't really traveling, right.
Matthew: But the driver and the putter, I was hitting really well. Sounds
Joshua: like you need new clubs.
Matthew: Sounds like I need to upgrade my driver and my putter next year. I love that for you. Me too. I'm excited. But the course was nice. Is immaculate. I think they play, they play one of the PGA tour events there.
Joshua: It looked really nice.
Joshua: It's, it's a nice 17 that you sent a picture of.
Matthew: Yeah. 17 is the best hole on the course. You'd think it'd be 18, but 18 wasn't that nice.
Joshua: That's cool. I'm really glad you played. I didn't think you were going to play.
Matthew: My wallet's not happy, but I'm happy. I played.
Joshua: Resort golf is expensive.
Brent: One more thing about hawaii though did because we went to hawaii at the end of july. I went to maui And my experience was that Hawaii was not crowded at all. Just compared to like the last three years that we've been, did you have that same experience on the big island?
Matthew: Yeah, it was dead. The economy is slowing for sure. The flight was pretty packed. There's people on the flight, but I think air travel is kind of hard to judge cause it could be people who are, you know, going for work or flying back to the mainland for whatever reason to see family. But the actual resort was not crowded at all.
Matthew: Like we had, there's no fights over pool chairs and you've stayed there before. So you know what it's like when it's packed. Yeah, I've seen it crowded. I haven't seen it at like peak season. Like Christmas, they say it's peak season.
Brent: See, cause people in Maui were chalking it up to the fire. But just knowing kind of what you've experienced and what I've heard from other people and on other islands, I think just travel has to be down right now.
Brent: I think that things are getting so expensive that people don't have the disposable income necessarily right now to be traveling as much as they were coming out of the pandemic.
Matthew: If you look at money from the fed, right? Savings account balances, credit card delinquencies. All that's going the wrong way.
Matthew: And it seems like all that pandemic money from 2022 and 2023 is gone
Brent: dries up fast It does when people aren't used to having it. They're at all time highs. They figure out ways to spend it I have a different
Joshua: thought though. I don't think it dried up that fast I mean It was like it was a while like what I mean, we're talking about the pandemic How many years now are we from kind of the exit of that?
Joshua: We thought this inflation was going to be turned around fairly quickly. It didn't People were still spending demand was high. I think we went a full summer before we started to see a slow down. That's just my opinion.
Matthew: Well, I mean, when a gallon of milk, fresh eggs, a pound of chicken and some fresh veggies costs a hundred dollars at whole foods, I mean, you know, you wonder where people's money's gone.
Brent: Yeah. It's not going to last.
Matthew: No, it's gone.
Brent: Yeah.
Matthew: They, they inflated it away.
Brent: So when we were on our trip to Hawaii on the way back, right, we're leaving the hotel. And I'm in the, the, the ride back, the whole family's in the ride. And I, I've went to go because the hotel was closing out the, the, the the trip.
Brent: And so I was looking at your pain, your bill, I was paying my bill. Checking out. Yep. So I was checking out and on the drive back, I was looking at my credit cards and my statement, and I was logged into my account and I see. I see Apple charge, I see Apple charge, I see another Apple charge, I see another Apple charge, and I'm like, what the heck is going on?
Brent: Did you immediately think Matt got a hold of my credit card? Never. I, I'm thinking, okay, so what the heck is going on with my Apple account? So, I start going back a little further.
Joshua: So this is associated with your Apple ID, like something's being charged from your phone and you're seeing it on your bank statement.
Brent: Yes. I'm like, somebody's got through to my Apple account and is charging a bunch of stuff. So I call the, I call the bank right away and I'm like I have all these Apple charges. I have no idea what they're for. There's a ton of charges. I don't, I've never bought anything like this on Apple before.
Brent: There is a problem here. And so, and I'm on this drive through Maui, I'm heading to the airport and then the call drops. So I'm like, of course, you know, because the service is there in certain areas. Isn't great. Yeah. So I'm like, I'm just going to deal with this when I get into the airport, get checked in and then I'll deal with it.
Brent: But I hear my son in the back. He's like, Oh daddy, I don't feel so good. So I'm like, Oh, he's just getting a little car. So like roll down the window, you'll be all right. You know? So we get through security and this is bothering me. And I'm talking to my wife and I'm like, what is all these Apple charges?
Brent: So we get through security. I call the bank again. And I asked him, I'm like, I'm unfamiliar with what these charges are. Can you please look at, you know, where all these Apple charges coming from? And can you tell me what is an Apple is being purchased? Of course, they can't tell me that. So like you got to call Apple.
Brent: So I try to call Apple, Apple's like, Oh, we don't have any customer service for this call. Like, and I'm getting a get ready on an airplane. I'm like, okay, this I'm getting nowhere with Apple. So I call back the bank. I'm like, Hey, you got to suspend my card because, or just put it on hold, put a pause on it because I don't know where these Apple charges.
Brent: How much were the chargers? Ranging anywhere from like $3 to one that I found for $200. Oh, I think I know what this is. All right, keep going. And so I hang up, they pause my card and my son comes over and he's crying, . And he tells me that. He's like, I, so I kind of get what now I'm like putting the pieces together.
Brent: I'm like, oh. His iPad is connected to his roadblocks video game. And now I'm starting to put this together. I'm like, I bet you now this is his video game. So he comes over crying and I'm like, Lennon, are these your charges? Like, are, were you buying stuff on your video games? And. He just like breaks down and I'm like showing him.
Brent: I'm like, look at this one. It says 1999. This 1, 20 99, this 1, 25, 39, whatever. He's like, no. The ones that I, I got were $20. . , not 1999. They're all even dollars.
Joshua: I didn't buy the $3 pack. I bought the $20 pack.
Brent: I'm like so I'm like, how did you do this? So he explains, like, he he's like, I'm so stupid. I didn't mean to do this.
Brent: I made a mistake. I didn't know it was like, it's going to charge like this. So I go back. I'm like, okay, I take a break. I wasn't going to get upset with him. I'm like, this is like, obviously like probably a good learning lesson that we could take from this. This isn't something that I'm going to get upset and start screaming about because this is completely out of his character.
Brent: Like I. I'm completely still surprised that he would do something like this. But I also think that when you're 10 years old, like you're going to make mistakes, so you're going to do stupid things. So what I did thought about it for a week is obviously his video games are gone. He was extremely like, just broken about doing this.
Brent: So I made him tallies, build a spreadsheet to show me how much he spent the money, how much he charged on Apple. He tallied it up. It was 775.
Matthew: Oh man, that's pretty bad. That's a lot of money.
Brent: So he now has a chore chart of what he has to earn off and he does not get his iPad back or his video games back until that's fully paid off.
Joshua: Wow. I'm not familiar with Roblox, but whatever like game it is or whatever you're paying for, it must be pretty good then by now.
Brent: Yeah. So my, my brother, when I was hanging out with my brother and. He was telling, we told him the story and he tells, he's like, yeah, my daughter was telling me that Landon has all the best stuff on roadblocks and she wanted it too.
Brent: I'm like, yeah, well she has 775 worth of roadblocks stuff. Poor Landon. His
Joshua: dad's a financial advisor, built him a spreadsheet.
Matthew: That's funny. There's lots of stories about this. Did you look it
Brent: up? I haven't. Josh and I talked about it a little bit. I've, I've heard of other stories of this
Joshua: happening. I know personally the same story from other parents and children.
Joshua: I think two other stories that are very, very similar to this. So it seems like it's a pretty big kind of issue.
Matthew: And I even think there's like legislation. Going on about this, this kind of problem. I think they call it like loot box gaming or something like that. Josh told me to
Brent: call
Matthew: Apple
Brent: and I probably can get some of this reversed in some capacity.
Brent: I would.
Joshua: So I don't know. Yeah. I'd call him. I'd call him and just, you know, see if you can even negotiate. Cause it was like, you know, it was like you said, it's a mistake by a child. But it correct me if I'm wrong. I
Brent: think when I set up their iPads that you can't fully set up the iPad until it has a credit card like you have to have the credit card in there.
Brent: It's linked to the other the main Apple account.
Matthew: I don't know. Cause I just set another iPad up for my daughter and. We made her a member of our family.
Brent: Huh, that's what we did. But
Matthew: in order for her to download anything, we have to give her approval on one of our Apple devices.
Brent: So yeah, his has the thumb approval.
Matthew: Yeah, we didn't, we didn't give her fingerprint access or any kind of approval. So like, there's an alert that comes across on my phone or my wife's phone saying like so and so's iPad wants to download this. Yeah, I think that's
Joshua: where I made the mistake. I know a couple of years ago Apple had that big upgrade to like their security systems for kids and purchasing stuff to where you can set it up like you did.
Joshua: It's cool to hear because I haven't never set that up and my kids just aren't up to the age yet. But that's cool that you can do that
Matthew: watch them too on if they get on those consoles like ps5 or xbox 360 Or because they could do the switch they could do the same thing on those Yeah, so
Joshua: so you didn't have to put a credit card in though
Brent: It's linked I think to his family's account which is connected to your it's connected
Matthew: credit card but we have to approve anything that gets downloaded.
Matthew: So I'd imagine anything purchased, we have to approve, but I mean, we're not.
Brent: He's approving it with his thumb. That's logging. So, so clearly I made a mistake too. All right. All right. Well, I think
Joshua: when you set it up though, that, that feature might not even have been, that's true. Cause your kids are older, right?
Joshua: Active. So,
Brent: so now what he has to do though, he has a chore chart for every week. Every chore that he does is associated with the dollar figure. And every day he has to initial my wife has to initial off on every chore that he does and then he tells At the end of the week and it goes into a folder and so like last week he earned 19 in chores I'm, like either better do more chores Work harder at it because it's going to be a minute before you have your video games back.
Joshua: It's a good lesson though And you're doing the right thing we've been I had the podcast about Teaching kids about money. It's a perfect Exercise.
Matthew: You guys want to talk about Kamala Harris's capital gains proposal? Yeah. What does that look like? Cause is this the first of her proposals that are coming out?
Matthew: Because I haven't seen very many of them or are they rolling out constantly? Are they
Matthew: all rolled out? She doesn't really have anything. I think that's official, but they keep, she keeps like rolling things out and then rolling them back once they get bad publicity.
Brent: So is this, this is a proposal. So this is means she's just kind of, Throwing something out there, but it's not concrete.
Brent: Is that correct?
Matthew: Correct. But also this proposal was in the Biden tax plan. And we briefly touched on that probably about, you know, three, four months ago on the podcast. So I think the big one is a lot of people don't understand what she's proposing because You know, capital gains isn't something we come across every day and realize versus unrealized.
Matthew: So realized means that's when you actually sell something right? So like if you own a stock, you sell it, you realize the capital gain. Unrealized means you haven't sold it yet. And what she's proposing to do is tax
Brent: That's impossible.
Matthew: Well, they have a tax plan on it and they have a bunch of scenarios.
Matthew: To give, to give like an
Joshua: example of this is like you bought your home for 200, 000. There's a, or let's say you bought a vacation home or rental property. You bought it for 200, 000. It appreciated, it's worth 400, 000. You don't realize the gain until you actually sell it. Exactly.
Matthew: So like in your scenario, her proposal is if it's worth 400 and you bought it for two, there, she's going to tax you 25 percent on 200,
Brent: 000 or it's impossible.
Brent: That is absolutely impossible. Who's going to determine the value of that and how are they going to, they're just going to automatically say, these are the values of everybody's stuff. And then you have to pay taxes on it. Yeah. Yeah. That's not possible. That is absolutely impossible. There's not the systems in the world to be able to, to trigger those kinds of implications.
Brent: I mean,
Matthew: they're proposing it's been done before in other countries.
Joshua: Okay. So what else do we have here? This is the reason why I think it's a little outrageous to even propose is that all of these politicians. All or all of them are investors now. Yeah. And this would directly affect them. Yes. In a very negative way.
Brent: And they
Joshua: own
Brent: businesses. So you, I mean, you're talking business value, you're talking property, you're talking stocks, you're talking assets. I mean, there's just so much there.
Joshua: And that concept of the house is related to, you know, if you have a brokerage account, I think what you were getting to. Is your stock position, right?
Joshua: You bought Google stock for 200. Now it's 400. It's the same concept.
Brent: Then what, what would be your, even your point to holding some of the positions you're holding with low basis system, you would just sell them. And that's just going to crash the market. Cause if you bought Apple 10 years ago and you're going to get taxed on anyway, you might not want to hold out, but you're just going to sell it.
Brent: If you're going to get taxed on it anyway, everyone's going to sell their stuff, they'd be doing a ton of changes in their portfolio,
Joshua: not even just stocks, but just the mutual fund market. Yep, so many legacy assets that have huge gains that they're just selling there don't sell because they don't want to realize the
Brent: gain Yep, and they're junk funds that aren't performing but you're holding them because you've made money over, you know, 25 years of holding it
Matthew: You boys are basically walking through the bear case of the stock market for the next few months Yeah,
Brent: that would seem very very difficult to implement.
Brent: I don't see that happening. But I also see that I also don't see a lot of things like this that's happening. I think a lot of people throw these things out there just to probably get publicity. And then they figure out, Oh, that's not going to actually work.
Matthew: So the next tax though, on her capital gain side is if you make a million dollars or more, the tech capital gains tax rises to 44%.
Matthew: And what most people think is they think, well, I don't make a million dollars. That doesn't really impact me. Let's move on. That sounds good. Tax the rich, right? That's kind of the calling card of the Democrat party today. However, you know, let's take somebody who is wealthy and they do make, you know, 10, on the capital gain, be it from the sale of a business, from the sale of a property, from the sale of a stock, 44 percent is a lot right now it's 23%.
Matthew: So it's almost double of the capital gains tax,
Brent: right? This is the same exact thing that Biden had like what two years ago. Right. It
Joshua: is. She's just adjusting it and it's actually adjusted. And so what
Brent: happened to this two years ago when he, they presented it, nothing's got shot down or,
Matthew: but here's the thing.
Matthew: We know the Trump tax cuts are expiring next year,
Brent: right? At the end of 2025.
Matthew: Yeah. So I don't know, to me, it gives me pause for concern. It gives me worry. Because like you just said a few minutes ago, Brent, if everybody knows the capital gains tax is going higher, they're going to sell stocks.
Brent: That's what you do.
Brent: So, but isn't this the same thing that gave you worry two years ago when Josh and I were sitting at the table and we're like, Hey man, this isn't possible.
Matthew: Yes, it is. But I think there's enough momentum now where, you know, it does seem like capital gains tax will at least be raised if she's president, but it's
Joshua: already trending down because Biden's proposal.
Joshua: Those percentages were all higher in each tier and she's lowered them with her new proposal.
Brent: The only thing that concerns me that that is, is she lowering it somewhere to that? It can get passed.
Joshua: Yes.
Brent: That's
Joshua: what's going to happen. Yeah. So that's why it
Brent: still
Joshua: ends up higher.
Brent: Yes.
Joshua: And I agree with you the unrealized gain thing.
Joshua: That's, that would, it's almost impossible that that can happen. Yeah. That's just ridiculous.
Matthew: So if it does pass, though, you're going to have, if she does get elected, you're going to have this window of time where it probably makes sense to sell anything you have with a large capital gain on it. So you could get out of it at a lower rate, which is, you know, for the stock market would take the stock market down.
Matthew: Housing market, probably not much of an impact. And if you own a small business, probably not much of an impact. Right.
Brent: I'd agree with that. Last thing probably a president. I don't care which president it is that comes in. The last thing they want to do is crash the market.
Joshua: No,
Brent: a lot of their approval ratings are now tied to it.
Brent: Yes. Tied to the market, tied to people's money. That's the last thing you're going to do. I think these are all just non issues. I think it's all the same thing that we're hearing every single time. I mean, it's just
Joshua: to get more voters because the agenda is tax the rich. That's how they're marketing this, right?
Joshua: So you guys think this
Matthew: is a fringe case?
Brent: I think that all of this is, is exactly what Josh said, is it's just a bunch of rhetoric to fire people up, to go out there and follow, to vote, to do what they need to do to get their base going. I don't think any of this will ever pass. It's, it's not
Matthew: See, I'm panicked and this makes me want to run to the polling booth and vote for Trump because I don't like what I hear.
Matthew: I don't
Joshua: like what I hear either. But I don't like what I hear either. Calm minds are thinking about this. It's probably not on the extreme of this proposal of what actually happens if she's elected. Well, I'm not calm. That's true. I'm not calm about this. That's true. But doesn't this, doesn't this make, let's say it does pass.
Joshua: Doesn't this make retirement accounts more useful? No,
Matthew: cause she's going to come after retirement accounts next. Well, let's
Joshua: not go down the rabbit hole, but I mean more tax deferred money, right? That's what you'd want. Yeah. Until they come for those. Look, dude, you take, gives me even more incentive to put more money into my retirement account.
Joshua: All right. So what's going
Brent: on with the stock market right now? Cause like the market is going through what it's third sell off right now of the year.
Matthew: Yeah. So I, I do think there's a number of factors here at play one, we were just talking about all of the capital gains stuff coming out from the Harris camp.
Matthew: And, you know, like I said, it's probably some people being like, Hey, let's take some positions off the table on the outside chance she does get elected and pass a higher capital gains law. That's number one. Number two we're in the month of September right now. Summer's over. It's fall football's here.
Matthew: A lot of people love the fall. That said, September is historically the only month out of the 12 month calendar year where the S and P 500 has a negative rate of return. So we have some seasonality and you know, if you think about this, you've been an investor for a long time. Doesn't it feel like we always have the market drop in September?
Matthew: Yeah, but why? It's just seasonality. They can't explain it, Brent. You know what the old theory is? I'll give you the old theory. When are business taxes due?
Brent: The October. No, September. Exactly. Yeah.
Matthew: So that's the old theory, right? Is the business taxes are due. Business owners sell stock to pay their tax bill.
Matthew: Does it work? I don't know.
Joshua: Also mutual funds rebalancing. A lot of them rebalance after the like getting prepped for the end of the year They don't do it right at the end of the year.
Matthew: Oh, interesting. So it's like they do it like pre fourth quarter.
Joshua: Correct. Yeah. It's not, you know, December 31st where mutual funds are doing all of their rebalancing, but it seems like, I don't know if the data is out there, but it is known that a lot of them do big rebalances in September or leading up to September.
Matthew: It's interesting. And then the third factor is when you look at the four year election cycle, These two months, September and October are historically weak in an election year. So usually we're, you know, we're pretty good. Like we've been this year due to September, October, we're weak. November happens, elections over market starts to rally.
Joshua: I have a theory. Everyone's just getting back to work. That's true too. Looked at your portfolio, especially like this year. I got to sell something to pay for my vacation. I have to sell something to pay for my vacations. Market was up. I've made some money this year This year's been already too too expensive with inflation everything else and now i'm finally paying attention again
Brent: So what's interesting to me is that in an election year going back almost the last hundred years In the last seven months of of the year in an election year the market has been up every single time except for 1948 So that means that historically from the end of May to the end of the year, the market is up every time except for one.
Brent: But here's what is crazy about that to me is that September and October are negative months. So you have two months in there that are just historically really bad months in an election year. That means the other five months have to be really well. And that means that also November and December, just like they have, you know, and pretty much a lot of non election years has to be pretty strong.
Brent: I
Matthew: agree with
Brent: that.
Matthew: Yeah, I agree with that. I'm sure the listener thinking is like, all right, well, you know, these guys are spitting out a lot of data. Why don't we just sell our stocks right now and buy on in November?
Brent: That's what most people would think.
Matthew: So are we going to do
Brent: that? Well, there's a lot of things to consider there.
Brent: Number one, you can't time the market. True. You don't know when to get in and get out. Like if you look at the decline that happened from the middle of July this year to the first part of August, That was like almost like this massive V, right? It was straight down six, 7%, and then straight right back up.
Brent: Eight straight days of market growth right after it.
Joshua: Who would have thought that? Yeah.
Brent: And if you missed one or two of those days, it's too late. It's done. It's done. Like you're already out. So you're never going to catch up.
Joshua: I would just be more afraid of missing the upside, right? When that market turns and you miss those couple good days.
Joshua: You're already trying to climb out of the hole, but people
Matthew: don't want people and are afraid of the upside. They're afraid of the downside. No, I
Brent: understand, but I'm afraid of the hard part about investing. I'm afraid of missing the upside. Yep. See, I don't like the downside
Matthew: because you're scared. Very. This whole show is just me being scared, scared about capital gains, scared about the market dropping.
Matthew: I'm just scared.
Brent: We need to calm your nerves, man. Yeah, we'll, we'll balance you out, bud.
Matthew: You know, that's, isn't good. What's up with the fed, Josh? They're cutting rates.
Joshua: It's looking like it, man. It's there. They're ready. They're ready to spike that volleyball into the sand. 50 basis points, 25 basis points, what's your call?
Matthew: So historically, when the Fed goes to cut rates, it's basically a 50 50 probability if it's good or bad for the stock market. So what
Joshua: have the feds done so far? You sound like an economist, not a
Matthew: financial advisor. It's a 50 50 chance. Well, it's a 50 50 chance. It's going to be good or bad. That's not bad odds.
Matthew: No. It's a coin flip. What have they done so far? Nothing. They've just, you know, they've raised rates, and we've been sitting here now for over a year at five and a half percent, and they're supposed to, you know, do 25 at least, and Josh said maybe even 50 basis points. I think it's going to be 25 the way this Fed operates.
Matthew: Yeah,
Brent: and it was what, they might do that three times this year or something? I
Joshua: think it's 50. I think a lot of backlash that they didn't cut last meeting.
Matthew: Yeah, it should be that if they do 50 that means they're worried about the economy
Brent: could be and when when would they do this?
Matthew: I think next week or the week after maybe rightfully worried about the economy might be the week We're at the conference.
Matthew: It might be that week. We're at the conference middle of September. That sounds about right
Brent: So if they do cut reds that rates 50 basis points, what do you think happens to the market?
Joshua: It's hard because we're in the we're in September So hard to say if it wasn't September, I would lean a little bit more to the upside, but I think, you know, market already priced in this cut. I don't even know if we have any movement.
Matthew: Yeah, I'd say probably it doesn't matter. And it's just more like Josh had about seasonality.
Matthew: Probably no impact on the housing market at all.
Joshua: It seems like from the financial industry that these, this market has priced in that they're cutting. We kind of know that now how much I think it's more impactful if they do cut 50 But again, I don't I don't think that too much moves That's just my opinion
Matthew: like the bond markets already moved the stock markets up this year It's probably priced in
Brent: Bonds have rapidly dropped though.
Brent: You look at the you know last year at this time We were buying a one year bond at five point four now. It's at what four two four one.
Matthew: Yeah So actually that's the confusing part with bonds They're actually doing great right now, right? Because they have an inverse relationship between price and yield.
Matthew: But yields, if you're reinvesting today, it's less than it was a few months ago is what you're saying. Yep. But the price of bonds has gone up, which is good for people. Yes.
Matthew: Okay, let's, let's talk about something else. Josh, I was gone for a while and I heard you had a breakfast. How'd that go?
Joshua: Oh, it was super nice. What does that mean?
Joshua: He had breakfast. Well, what'd you do? Tell us about it. I had a breakfast with an advisor breakfast and learn event here at our Evermont office. So we had six nurses. From one of the local NICU units. Cause you work with a ton of first responders. Yeah. First responders, firefighters, police officers nurses, even physicians.
Joshua: So kind of that first responder, first responder, healthcare industry. So had a bunch of interest from these nurses to learn about financial planning. So we hosted the event here at the Evermont office and it was great. It was free, right? Free. We had a breakfast for them. We went through what is financial planning and talked about a little bit about retirement planning.
Joshua: Also talked about, you know, what was the hot topic that they wanted to learn about annuities.
Brent: Why is that? Because their retirement plans at work?
Joshua: Yeah, retirement plans at work. I think their plans through Lincoln. But then, I just think they also get the flyers in the mail, come to seminars, learn about annuities.
Joshua: So yeah, it was really nice. We had a great event. I think they even went out for a cocktail after. Are you going to drink more of those? We're planning to do more. And if we, you know, we have anyone interested, we love to host you at our new beautiful office and we can set something up.
Brent: So one of the things that Matt missed on that day, that day was a day of you hosted an event and then we've been planning the redesign of decor, furniture and so forth in our office for months.
Brent: And that was install day. So as soon as you finish, truck rolls up or the truck rolled in while we were finishing. Yeah. And then everything was getting delivered. But Matt wasn't, of course, on the stressful day of the year. Matt wasn't here for that. He somehow just magically planned around that. So he wasn't here.
Brent: Probably a good thing probably he's at that wasn't
Matthew: here.
Brent: He's really good at that. So when Matt came back, the whole office is redesigned and everything's done. All the hard lifting is is out of the way.
Brent: So let's close it out. NFL starting. What are you thinking? You excited for this season?
Matthew: Yeah, I'm happy NFL's here. If I on the fly you guys a Super Bowl prediction, would you would you be able to give it to me?
Matthew: Homer or realistic any prediction realistic home or whatever you think give me your Super Bowl.
Brent: Okay, I'll say even though we just saw their game I'll say the Ravens Yeah, or
Matthew: to
Brent: watch that would have been who I said before I saw them play last night But I'll say it anyway because that was who I would have said after seeing him last night I have high questions about that. No bears a lot of people high on the bears.
Brent: I don't know if they're at that level yet
Matthew: I'll tell you why bears are born. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter who you put on that team. The bears are always born Yeah,
Brent: I got your pick Super Bowl. Yeah. Oh,
Matthew: all right. I like the Packers out of the NFC Yeah, I don't think they're gonna win it though. And then out of the AFC.
Matthew: Oh, this is tough This is really tough. But I think I'm gonna go bills with the title. I would I guess they regress but
Joshua: into Dolphins AFC Horse horse. So you're still get it boys. All right. What do you have for a recommends? Did you already recommends recommend healthy penguin? Probably, but why don't you give it a shout out?
Joshua: So Matt told me about, well, we kind of looked at it. Matt was the first one to order it, but healthy penguins like a meal prep service. And Matt was nice enough to gift us our first healthy penguin to try it out. My wife liked it. I liked it, but really good when you're really busy and you don't have time to prep food for the week.
Joshua: Really good. Good recommends. You can look it up online. Obviously, this is local to our area But I was pretty impressed with it both times. I've gotten it so far.
Matthew: It's good And it's nice because then you don't have to worry about cooking dinner. You just microwave it I
Joshua: know they have this type of service all over and this is not something that I recommend doing all the time But like, you know, even like after Labor Day, right?
Joshua: You're busy. You have plans and you can go online and order for the next week to have like a couple of meals prepped for you. They drop them off at your house. So a nice convenience.
Matthew: I ordered it this week and the week we're at the conference. I'm going to order it too. That's what I'm going to do. It's nice.
Matthew: I'll go next. I've been watching a new show on Apple TV. It's called bad monkey. It's with Vince Vaughn and it's actually really good. It's, it's pretty funny. It's like a detective show. It mixes like. Kind of like being serious and call and comedy like Apple shows are just really well done.
Matthew: They spend a lot per episode and you could tell them the show. I enjoy it
Joshua: I like Vince Vaughn. He's funny. He
Matthew: hasn't been in much lately. No. Yeah, that's and I was like, oh he's back And he's good in the show.
Brent: I've been My recommends is this starbucks drink that i've been drinking. I don't like it Yeah, I don't really ever go to starbucks like Before having this little drink, I'd have probably would never, ever go.
Brent: It's just not for me. I'd rather just make coffee, but they have this melon burst energy drink that they created. And it's incredible because it gives me the boost that I want. I stopped drinking Celsius energy drinks. Congratulations. That was like a five, six, I don't know how many years I was like kind of drinking those in the afternoon for, for several years.
Brent: And I kicked that. Pretty much kind of had to stop cold turkey, right? Josh, like I pretty much stopped pretty, you know, pretty quick fashion.
Joshua: Yeah, it was pretty quick. Yeah. Well, you know what?
Brent: You, you were, you really liked that drink though. Yes. So I started now, but this melon burst energy drink from Starbucks, like I can't go every day.
Brent: These aren't good for you. What is the caffeine? That like, what? I think it's like 180 milligrams or something. You could fact check it. 160, 180, 200. I think it's like 450.
Matthew: I mean, dude, he's got the ultra size. I mean, he's got the venti sitting over there. It's the only
Brent: size they make it in.
Joshua: Or I wouldn't even get it.
Joshua: I tried it. Have you tried it? No. These are like the new energy drinks. They have like three flavors, I think, right?
Matthew: Yeah.
Brent: So I would try it don't get hooked on it. I tried to only have it once, maybe twice a week, but this has only been going on for a few weeks. You know what,
Joshua: if you can keep it in moderation, I love it for you. It does make you. Happy like you like going and getting that drink.
Brent: Yeah. I'd much rather have this than even a glass of wine.
Brent: So, I mean, this is, I
Matthew: mean, literally there's only four days this week and we went there 50 percent of the time. I'm going to
Joshua: put a stop on the Starbucks payments on the cart.
Matthew: Yeah. This is not going to be a daily occurrence. Your son's dropping Roblox and you're out here dropping Starbucks.
Brent: All right. So as advisors, we love helping people.
Brent: So if you're thinking about planning for retirement. You're thinking about retiring and that transition and what that transition would look like, or you're even just thinking about. You know, being in retirement right now and what it's like to actually enjoy your money more, get the most out of this chapter of your life.
Brent: Feel free to give us a call. You can get our show notes at retirement plan, playbook. com. You could always visit us on our website at evermontwealth. com or evermont. com. But as always, thank you for listening.
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